Australia v Bangladesh 1st Test betting preview and tips
Australia begin their home Test summer with overwhelming favouritism against Bangladesh, opening the two-match series in Darwin on Thursday, before heading to Mackay later this month.
Betting sites are expecting little more than an Australian procession, installing Pat Cummins’ side as $1.01 favourites to win the opening Test, while both the draw ($23.00) and a Bangladesh victory ($23.00) are considered rank outsiders.
Those odds reflect both Australia’s formidable home record and the gulf in experience between the two sides in Australian conditions. The hosts haven’t played Test cricket since wrapping up a commanding 4-1 Ashes series victory over England in January, but return with virtually a full-strength squad. Captain Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Nathan Lyon are all back after injuries restricted their Ashes campaigns, while Steve Smith, Travis Head, Mitchell Starc and Cameron Green headline one of the strongest Test line-ups in world cricket.
Bangladesh, meanwhile, arrive under far more difficult circumstances. The tourists have been hit by injuries to two of their most dangerous fast bowlers, with Nahid Rana sidelined by a side strain and Shoriful Islam unavailable after suffering a hamstring injury. Both would have been central to Bangladesh’s hopes of exploiting the extra pace and bounce on Australian pitches. Their absence forced selectors to recall experienced opener Soumya Sarkar, who returns to the Test arena for the first time since 2021, while veteran wicketkeeper-batter Litton Das has also been drafted into the squad to strengthen the middle order.
Australian form
The teams have met just six times in Test cricket, with Australia holding a commanding 5-1 advantage. Bangladesh’s lone success came in Mirpur back in 2017, but every previous Test played in Australia has ended comfortably in the hosts’ favour. Darwin itself also holds fond memories for Australia, who defeated Bangladesh by an innings and 132 runs when the teams last met at Marrara Stadium in 2003.
Despite Australia’s lengthy break from the format, there are few concerns over preparation. Cummins’ men sit atop the current World Test Championship standings after winning seven of their opening eight matches in the new cycle, while the pace trio of Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc reunites with Lyon in what remains one of the most feared bowling attacks in international cricket.
Bangladesh form
Bangladesh’s recent Test form has been more encouraging than many realise. The Tigers swept Pakistan 2-0 earlier this year and had won four consecutive Tests before a heavy defeat to Zimbabwe in June. However, any confidence from those results took a hit during their Australian tour match, where they were dismissed for just 54 in the second innings against a Cricket Australia XI.
Australia v Bangladesh odds
The player markets are every bit as one-sided as the match betting. Steve Smith heads the Player of the Match market at $7.75, narrowly ahead of Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc at $8.00, Travis Head at $8.50 and Josh Hazlewood at $9.00.
Beau Webster and Marnus Labuschagne are both available at $11.00, while Cameron Green sits at $11.50. Bangladesh all-rounder Mehidy Hasan Miraz ($21.00) is the shortest-priced Tiger, ahead of captain Najmul Hossain Shanto and veteran Mushfiqur Rahim, who are each quoted at $23.00.
Australia v Bangladesh Test Odds
First Test – Marrara Stadium, Darwin
Australia v Bangladesh betting tips
WGL’s cricket betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Australia v Bangladesh tips:
Travis Head Man of the match
The Aussie master blaster could do anything against the weakened Bangladeshi bowling attack. We prefer him to Smith, whose form has not been as consistent as Head, while his odds of 8.50 for man of the match honours are juicy. Given Head is expected to open the batting, he should get two good looks at making a score. Jake Weatherald, his likely opening partner, is the rough option we don’t mind at 17.00.
Patrick Cummins most wickets
Cummins has been out of action at Test level since the Adelaide Test last summer, although he recently played in the IPL. We expect Cummins to come out firing in his Test return and at 3.60 for most wickets in Bangladesh’s first innings, we like the odds. If he bowls well without luck in the first innings, double down on Cummins in their second dig.
Taijul Islam most wickets
Statistically speaking Islam is Bangladesh’s most successful bowler. Given Australia can struggle against decent spin (albeit the conditions are not that suitable) we don’t mind him at 5.00 to top their wickets – particularly if Australia is forced into a second bat.
Australia v Bangladesh 1st Test prediction
With Australia boasting a fully fit bowling attack, world-class batting depth and home conditions firmly in their favour, the bookmakers expect the hosts to make an emphatic start to the series. For Bangladesh, overcoming injuries and producing one of the biggest Test upsets in recent memory would require a performance well beyond anything the odds currently suggest. We can’t see Bangladesh getting near Australia in these conditions with the talent gap just too big.
