NRL finals week 3: Dolphins v Roosters betting tips
The red-hot Dolphins host the resurgent Sydney Roosters on Friday night at Suncorp Stadium, and bookies have priced this as the closest of the two NRL preliminary finals this weekend.
Of course, the Dolphins are playing in their first finals series and have the chance to reach a grand final in only their fourth season, while the Roosters are seeking a first grand final berth since 2019.
And as if the prospect of watching two teams packed full of attacking intent square off was not exciting enough, the miracle return of Roosters halfback Sam Walker has added another level of intrigue.
Walker’s season looked done and dusted but just four weeks after ankle surgery he has been named to take the field, meaning both teams are at near full strength for this blockbuster.
Redcliffe are quite rightly the $1.70 favourites to win, while the line is set at just 2.5 points. But interestingly, the visiting Roosters have been heavily backed to win with 2.5 points start.
Both teams have similat stats on defence this defence, but it has been the Dolphins’ ability to attack in bursts and quickly add points that has separated them from rivals in the second half of the season, a period in which they have been the best team in the competition.
Dolphins v Roosters team news
Dolphins: The Redcliffe side has been superb throughout the second half of the season and they have recalled former Storm premiership player Felise Kaufusi to add experience off the bench. He has not played for the Dolphins since round 25 but has been kept fit with Queensland Cup duties. Tevita Naufuhu makes way for Kaufusi in the only change to the team that came from behind to beat the Warriors in New Zealand in such dazzling fashion.
Roosters: Ace halfback Walker is named to make a shock return from syndesmosis surgery after initially being ruled out for the rest of the season. He’s passed fitness tests and coach Trent Robinson has declared him ready, though it does seem somewhat of a risk given the time line. He slots in at No.7, with veteran Daly Cherry-Evans switching back to five-eighth. Hugo Savala, who has deputised for Walker in great style, goes back to the bench, with Toby Rodwell dropping out.
Roosters back in race in title betting
We bid goodbye to the disappointing Sharks and Warriors last weekend, and the Roosters’ demolition of the former had them shooting back into only $4.50 to win the title, after they were out to $10 last week.
Of course, the Knights caused an upset against the Warriors in New Zealand, but are still rated as rank outsiders at $12 with only four teams remaining. They are given little hope of causing another upset, but it might pay to tread warily given the injury concerns around Panthers superstar Nathan Cleary.
Penrith and the Dolphins of course top the market and will go into this weekend’s matches fresh, while the Roosters and, in particular, the Knights are coming off bruising victories.
Read on for our Dolphins v Roosters tips and winner prediction for their NRL preliminary final clash
Dolphins v Roosters match information
- Kick-off: 7.50pm AEDT, Friday, September 25
- Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
- Head to head odds: Dolphins $1.70, Roosters $2.20
- Line betting: Dolphins (-2.5 points) $1.96, Roosters (+2.5 points) $1.85
- Match total: 45.5 points: over $1.90, under $1.90
2026 NRL premiership betting
$2.15 Penrith Panthers
$3.50 Redcliffe Dolphins
$4.50 Sydney Roosters
$12 Newcastle Knights
Dolphins v Roosters betting tips
The Dolphins and Roosters have played only seven times previously, and obviously never in the finals. The Roosters lead the head to head 4-3 but importantly the Dolphins have won both their meetings earlier this season, 48-10 in round 15 and 26-12 in round 26.
That second meeting brought the lowest points total of all their meetings; overall the matches have brought an average of just under 57 points per match! While we don’t expect the points to flow as freely as that in a final with so much at stake, the match total line of 45.5 points looks within range.
We think the more finals-hardened Roosters could cause a slight upset here, especially if Walker is right to go; he showed during the Origin series this year that he is ready for the big matches.
Roosters by 6 points.
- Roosters +2.5 points / match total over 45.5 points at $3.50 with major bookmakers.
- Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) anytime try-scorer at $2.20. The powerhouse Englishman has been on a heater of late.
NRL finals week 3, 2026
- Friday, September 25: Dolphins v Roosters, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane| 7.50pm
- Sunday, September 27: Panthers v Knights, Accor Stadium, Sydney | 4pm
(winners to play in the grand final at 7.30pm, Sunday, October 4, Accor Stadium, Sydney)
