NRL finals week 3: Panthers v Knights betting tips
Penrith and Newcastle square off in the second NRL preliminary final in Sydney on Sunday, with the Panthers attempting to make their sixth grand final in seven years.
Of course the Panthers have been rated as one of the greatest teams of all with their four successive titles from 2021 and 2024, while the Knights scraped into the finals and have caused upsets against the Rabbitohs and Warriors in their two finals to date. The Knights are playing in their first preliminary final since 2013.
Newcastle are clearly the Cinderella team of this finals series but they will have to step it up another notch if they are to cause another upset. Amazingly this is the first time these teams have clashed in a final.
While the Panthers sat atop the ladder for most of the season, they do not quite have the aura of invincibility they carried during their four-peat but they remain the benchmark of the NRL.
At times their defence has been suffocating and on average they conceded about 10 points fewer per game than the Knights during the regular season. The Knights will have to do everything right, but they are certainly playing inspired football, with captain Kalyn Ponga in superb form.
Panthers v Knights team news
Panthers: The biggest issue for the hot favourites surrounds superstar Nathan Cleary (foot); there is little doubt he will line up from the start, though he may not take kicking duties. Jack Cogger has served a three-game ban and rejoins the bench, along with Luke Garner (groin). Jesse McLean and Freddy Lussick are back to the reserves, alongside Izack Tago (knee), who is trying to force his way back into the side.
Knights: Coach Justin Holbrook keeps the faith with squad that upstaged the Warriors in stunning fashion. Origin forward Dylan Lucas (fractured ankle) played only 14 minutes and should play a bigger role against the Panthers.
Read on for our Panthers v Knights tips and winner prediction for their NRL preliminary final clash
Panthers v Knights match information
- Kick-off: 4pm AEDT, Sunday, September 27
- Venue: Accor Stadium, Sydney
- Head to head odds: Panthers $1.28, Knights $3.80
- Line betting: Panthers (-10.5 points) $1.90, Knights (+10.5 points) $1.90
- Match total: 41.5 points: over $1.85, under $1.96
2026 NRL premiership betting
$2.15 Penrith Panthers
$3.50 Redcliffe Dolphins
$4.50 Sydney Roosters
$12 Newcastle Knights
Panthers v Knights betting tips
The Panthers’ dominance over the Knights extends back to 2015; of the past 19 clashes between the teams, the Panthers have won 16, the Knights two and there has been one draw. The teams have met only once this season, when the Panthers scored a dominant 44-12 win in Newcastle in round 8.
The Knights are certainly in the zone, but the bookies don’t like their chances of reaching the grand final, with the Panthers a red-hot $1.28 favourite and $3.80 available about the Knights. There could be a little rain around on Sunday, and that may make tries harder to come by.
The Knights have had an inspired run to this point after fighting back from being wooder spooners just last year.
But this might be where their fairytale 2026 runs into a Panthers-style buzz saw.
Panthers by 12 points.
- Penrith -10.5 points/match total under 41.5 points at $4.40 with Australian sportsbooks.
- Brian To’o (Panthers) to score at least one try at $1.90 with bookmakers.
NRL finals week 3, 2026
- Friday, September 25: Dolphins v Roosters, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane| 7.50pm
- Sunday, September 27: Panthers v Knights, Accor Stadium, Sydney | 4pm
(winners to play in the grand final at 7.30pm, Sunday, October 4, Accor Stadium, Sydney)
