NRL grand final: Roosters v Knights betting tips
Sydney Roosters and Newcastle face off in the NRL grand final on Sunday in a match-up that is a massive surprise to the majority of pundits, including yours truly.
Penrith and the NZ Warriors were the dominant teams during the regular season, but when it mattered most the Panthers and the Warriors fell short.
Of course, the Roosters rolled the dice massively last off-season by recruiting the legendary but ageing playmaker Daly Cherry-Evans from Manly. He turned 37 in February but the little man has come up big for the Roosters when it has counted.
Especially when his halves partner Sam Walker looked done for the season with big finals looming. Now the incredibly recovered Walker and Cherry-Evans are on the cusp of something special.
The Roosters were a little fortunate to even make the top four, as the Cronulla Sharks folded up badly in the run into the finals, but that counts for little now as they have overcome losing their first final to Penrith and the ankle injury to Walker to be at the big dance for the first time since 2019.
Amazingly, their opponents Newcastle are in position to create an even bigger fairytale triumph than the Roosters, given they finished the season in seventh place and most thought they’d soon be headed off on their end-of-season holidays.
The Knights have defied the odds to bowl over South Sydney, the New Zealand Warriors and the Panthers in successive weeks to set up the incredible possibility of their third NRL title, after their famous wins in 1997 and 2001
As mentioned it’s an unexpect granf final in which you’d think most neutrals would be in the corner of the Knights, though the bookmakers are far more pragmatic and have made the Roosters short-priced favourites for title No.16,
Notable is that the Roosters have also finished runners-up 15 times so they need to a win here to push their grand final record into positive territory.
Roosters v Knights team news
Roosters: Coach Trent Robinson has stucksolid with the 17 who rolled the Dolphins in Brisbane last Friday night, naming an unchanged team. Butr there must be some doubt over tough utility Connor Watson, who failed a HIA at Suncorp Stadium but will be checked by an independent neurologist on Thursday as he seeks to take his place. Benaiah Oelu, Tommy Talau and Egan Butcher are the reserves waiting for a potential bench spot if Watson is not good to go..
Knights: Similarly, Knights oach Justin Holbrook made no changes to his squad but that is before hooker Phoenix Crossland fronts the judiciary on Tuesday night to answer a dangerous contact charge after his alleged hip drop tackle on Panthers superstar Nathan Cleary. That tackle had Crossland sent off, though somehow the Knights regrouped and finished over the top of the Panthers with only 12 men. One of Diesel Hagan, Kyle McCarthy or Elijah Salesa Leaumoana will come into the 17 if Crossland is rubbed out.
Read on for our Roosters v Knights tips and winner prediction for their NRL grand final clash
Roosters v Knights match information
- Kick-off: 7,30pm AEDT, Sunday, October 4
- Venue: Accor Stadium, Sydney
- Head to head odds: Roosters $1.44, Knights $2.80
- Line betting: Roosters (-6.5 points) $1.90, Knights (+6.5 points) $1.90
- Match total: 42.5 points: over $1.90, under $1.90
2026 NRL premiership betting
$4.50 Sydney Roosters
$12 Newcastle Knights
Roosters v Knights betting tips
The Roosters have an amazingly dominant record over the Knights: they have won 20 of the past 23 encounters between the teams, including 10 of the past 11 and the past six in a row. That dominance stretches back 15 years, and in many ways even to the decade before that.
Newcastle though are turning norms on their head in their inspired run to the grand final, led by captain Kalyn Ponga. To overturn a 14-6 half-time deficit against the Panthers with 12 men after Phoenix Crossland was sent off, scoring 16 unanswered second-half points, is the stuff of legend.
This is the moment for the Knights as they again go in heavy underdogs; will they falter and be remembered fondly as the heroic battlers who made a memorable charge to the grand final, or will they imprint their name on the trophy to be remembered as one of the all-time great underdog tales?
We’re not sure but the dominance of the Roosters’ record against them suggests it’s unlikely.
Roosters by 8 points.
- Sydney Roosters -6.5 / match total over 42.5 points at $3.20 with Australian sportsbooks.
- Mark Nawaqanitawase (Sydney Roosters) to score two or more tries at $3.45 in his final NRL game before returning to rugby.
NRL finals week 4, 2026
- Sunday, October 4: Sydney Roosters v Newcastle Knights, Accor Stadium, Sydney | 7.30pm
