Genius Sports lifts forecast on prediction market growth
Sports data and technology provider Genius Sports has increased its full-year financial guidance after reporting strong third-quarter growth and expanding its involvement in the US prediction market industry.
The company reported revenue of $269.9 million for the three months ending September 30, an increase of 62% year-on-year.
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Adjusted EBITDA increased 156% to $87.1 million, while Genius Sports recorded operating income of $10.4 million.
The result marked the company’s first quarter of positive operating income and founder and CEO Mark Locke said the results were the culmination of much hard work.
“Our predictable betting business, expanding Media capabilities and growing opportunities in prediction markets position us to capture greater value from the data, technology and infrastructure we have spent 25 years building,” he said.
Revenue from its betting division increased 33% to $153 million, supported by higher pricing on contract renewals and additional services.
Its media division generated $116.9 million, an increase of 126%, with the acquisition of Legend contributing to growth.
Genius Sports raised its 2026 revenue forecast to between $1.015 billion and $1.035 billion, compared with its previous guidance of $1.005 billion to $1.025 billion.
Adjusted EBITDA guidance was increased to between $287 million and $297 million.
“This quarter’s $54m of Free Cash Flow demonstrates the cash-generating power of the combined business and reflects the performance we always believed our model could deliver,” Locke said.
The improved outlook follows agreements signed with prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket in August, providing official sports data, integrity monitoring and other services to the two platforms.
Prediction markets have emerged as an increasingly important commercial opportunity for sports data companies, particularly as platforms expand their sports-related event contracts.
However, the prediction market sector continues to face regulatory uncertainty in the United States, where state gambling authorities and federal derivatives regulators have taken differing positions on sports prediction contracts.
Despite the quarterly improvement, Genius Sports’ net loss for the first nine months of 2026 increased year-on-year.
