Adelaide v Port Adelaide betting tips and prediction
Adelaide’s shaky start to their season of great expectation faces a stiff test against Port Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval on Friday night.
The Crows (1.53) are favourites to defeat the Power (2.51) but the margins have narrowed following the underdog’s five goal win over Geelong last start.
The 13th-placed Crows have won just three of seven games to start the season, with injuries and unavailabilities disrupting their year.
They will be boosted by the inclusion of Dan Curtin, Alex Neal-Bullen, Jake Soligo and James Borlase, but have lost captain Jordan Dawson (personal reason) and dropped Nick Murray, Finnbar Maley and Charlie Edwards.
The 11th-placed Power have began to look more at ease under Josh Carr in recent matches, with the Cats victory a reward for their efforts.
The Power have included Todd Marshall after illness, with Jack Watkins the unlucky player, but they did not tinker too much, after their stirring victory over the Cats.
The Power are missing a handful of stars from their line-up, including captain Connor Rozee, Sam Powell-Pepper and Jack Lukosius.
Adelaide v Port Adelaide betting tips
Our AFL betting expert has assessed the market and found some value Crows v Power tips:
Over/Under points total tip
The over/under total points mark has been set at 175.5, which we think is going to be a little bit high for this contest, between two arch rivals. We can see a dour first-half, with both teams cracking in hard, before it opens up in the second-half. The unders is the safe options here.
Mitch Georgiades 3+ goals
Georgiades is clearly the Power’s no.1 forward this and his form has been excellent. Georgiades, being such a focal point, is unlikely to go completely cold, even if the Power lose, as his huge streak of games with a goal alludes to. Georgiades is a strong contender to top the goals in the match, but we’re happy to go with 3+ at ??.
Possessions betting
The Crows desperately need their midfield to lift, and the task gets harder without Dawson. With Jake Soligo coming into the line-up we’ll include him for 20+, while we also like Josh Rachele for 25+, given his captain’s absence. Rankine has been inconsistent this year and needs to lift, but will get plenty of midfield minutes and poses a nice option at odds.
The Power were dragged over the line by Jason Horne-Francis against the Cats and he will be key to their chances again. He’s offering value still at 1.68 to gather 25+, but we like him for 20+ and if you’re feeling adventurous pair it up with 2+ goals (at 1.90 with Neds) for the no.1 draft pick.
Adelaide v Port Adelaide prediction
The Crows simply must win this game to kickstart their season, but they face a team coming off their best win of the year, who boast plenty of weapons, despite a horrendous injury list. The Crows need to find something through the midfield, and if they can at least break even, they will win this game courtesy of their stronger book-ends. You can mount a case for the Power in this game, and we’re not super confident, but we’ll give it our best and from a wagering perspective will probably stick to the player markets. Our final Adelaide v Port Adelaide prediction? Crows by nine points.
