Brisbane v Adelaide betting tips and prediction
Welcome to our Brisbane v Adelaide betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL semi final at the Gabba on Saturday night.
The Lions (1.34) are heavy favourites to defeat the Crows (3.29), with the two-time reigning premier a shock loser to Sydney in their opening final.
Brisbane were jumped from the outset by the slick Swans, who were missing a handful of their best and lost skipper Callum Mills early to a serious knee injury.
Chris Fagan’s outfit will not panic and this is shown at the selection table, with just one change – Ty Gallop replacing the injured Noah Answerth.
The Crows dismissed a gallant Western Bulldogs at home to earn their semi finals spot, but they will need to lift another gear if they are beat the Lions on their home deck.
Adelaide has recalled Zac Taylor in place of Isaac Cumming, as they attempt to make a first preliminary final under Matthew Nicks.
The Crows won’t need any extra motivation, but Daniel Curtin (50th), Riley Thilthorpe and Sam Berry (both 100th) will celebrate milestones.
The Lions won their only encounter with Adelaide by 52 points in April, but the visitors will take some confidence in having beaten them in the two previous matches, including at the Gabba in 2025.
The Lions v Crows line has been set at 21.5 points at Neds Australia (Neds review), while the over/under total points mark is at 182.5.
Brisbane v Adelaide betting tips
WGL’s AFL betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Brisbane v Adelaide tips:
Charlie Cameron 3+ goals
The Lions firestarter has an outstsanding record in finals, despite his subpar showing last start, which saw him record just four possessions in their loss to the Swans. Expect Cameron to lift at home and he’s now value at 3.30 to kick 3+ at Australian betting sites.
Riley Thilthorpe 3+ goals
The Crows three-pronged forward line can be both a blessing and a curse. Some weeks they work well together, other weeks, teams run the ball out with ease, while Taylor Walker, Darcy Fogarty and Riley Thilthorpe watch on. The biggest banana is Thilthorpe, who has had an ordinary season, but he can work over a Lions backline that has been exploited by key position stars this year. he is paying 3.80 to kick three goals or more.
Lachie Neale 30+ possessions
Neale had one of his quieter games in the last few months in the Lions first final, with a tagger quelling his impact. With rumours swirling he is locked in at he Pies, we can’t see the Lions superstar going out with a whimper. He’s now exceptional value at 2.42 to reach 30 possessions, in what might be his last game at the club.
Brisbane v Adelaide prediction
The Lions deserve to be respected courtesy of what they have done in the last two seasons. But the Crows will fancy their chances of knocking them off their throne. Either way, the winner of this clash will lock horns with Hawthorn next week in Melbourne, a game both will believe they can win. Without great confidence we’re gonna stick with the reigning champs. Our final Lions v Crows prediction? Brisbane by 12 points.
