Carlton v Collingwood betting tips and winner prediction
Welcome to our Carlton v Collingwood betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL round 6 clash at the MCG on Thursday night.
The two traditional foes are both in desperate need of a win after sluggish starts to 2026 which has seen the blowtorch turned on Blues coach Michael Voss and pundits turn on the Magpies recruiting.
Carlton has been installed an outsider against Collingwood by Australian betting sites, wth the line sitting at 11.5 points and over/under mark at 160.5 points.
The Blues will receive a significant boost for this clash, with star defender Jacob Weitering and first round draft pick Harry Dean coming back into the line-up after injury. They can also consider Cooper Lord and Matt Duffy after they trained fully this week.
The Magpies will be without veteran Steele Sidebottom with a hip problem and Jordan De Goey (concussion), with Ed Allan and Will Parker looming as likely replacements. They are unlikely to call on star small Bobby Hill or defender Reef McInness, with the pair on the road back from long absences, although young key forward Charlie West could be a smokey for his first game of the year.
In case anyone has missed it (jokes), Magpies ace Nick Daicos will play his 100th game against Carlton, in further motivation for the Pies, who are 2-3 after five rounds and coming off a thrashing at the hands of Brisbane.
Carlton v Collingwood betting tips
Our AFL betting expert has assessed the market sand found some value Carlton v Collingwood betting tips:
Nick Daicos 30+ possessions
Daicos is playing his 100th game and there have not been too many times in his young career where he has fallen short on big occasions. We’ll be including him this week in our same game multis, with the value at 30 possessions, rather than 25. His brother, Scott Pendlebury (who has tortured the Blues in the past) and young midfielder Angus Anderson, who was solid on debut last week, can also be considered for Magpies possessions.
Sam Walsh 30+ possessions
The Magpies are unlikely to tag Walsh, given he doesn’t have the hurt factor of someone like Daicos, or even his young teammate Jagga Smith, who looks like he will cut teams up by foot for the next 10 years, if his skinny body can hold up. Walsh, though, can run all day and has started this season in fantastic form. He’s got a good record against the Pies too. Carlton captain Pat Cripps was better last week, without George Hewett in the team, so keep an eye on selection and base his output on that.
Harry McKay 3+ goals
It’s no secret the Magpies are short down back, without influential captain Darcy Moore, and McKay will need to cash in if the Blues are to roll Collingwood. McKay has not lit the world on fire this year, but has a golden opportunity to fill his boots, but is likely to cop the attention of Billy Frampton. He’s offering some decent value at 3.30 to kick 3+ with Neds Australia. We don’t want a bar of the 2.50 on offer on Magpies forward Jamie Elliott to kick 3+, with their leading goal-kicker last year making a habit of burning us this year.
Points totals tip
The over/under mark has been set at 160.5 for this clash, with betting sites adjusting to the dour Pies ability to shut down teams, as evidenced by keeping Fremantle to 45 points last week. The Blues tend to be less defensively orientated than the Dockers, while the Magpies will surely think they can win by kicking a score. While we won’t say the McRae handbrake will come off, we think 160.5 will be eclipsed in this match. One caveat, keep an eye on the weather.
Carlton v Collingwood betting tips
Carlton will fancy its chances of knocking off their old rival in this contest, but it’s almost impossible to tip them in their current state, given they have made a habit of losing. The Magpies are still gallant, but lack the class of the contenders, and desperately need help for the Daicos brothers. Two decent options stand out in match markets, with the Pies to win by 1-39, and the tri-bet market of either team tow in by less than 24 points (1.80) our considerations. Our final Carlton v Collingwood prediction? Magpies by nine points.
