Maroons now Origin favourites after crushing victory
Queensland have firmed into favourites to win the 2026 State of Origin series after their stunning 44-24 victory over New South Wales at the MCG levelled the series at 1-1 and shifted momentum decisively ahead of the decider at Suncorp Stadium.
The Maroons were backed into $1.54 favourites with Australian betting sites for Game III immediately following Wednesday night’s result, with the Blues drifting to $2.50 after surrendering a 12-8 half-time lead in front of a record Origin crowd of 91,761.
Queensland’s remarkable second-half display saw Billy Slater’s side pile on six tries after the break, with Selwyn Cobbo crossing for a hat-trick and captain Cameron Munster producing one of the finest performances of his Origin career, despite going off in the first half for a head injury assessment, which left them without their captain and five-eighth until the break.
“Yeah I thought we handled a fair bit of adversity in that first half quite well,” Slater said.
“You know there was some things that were out of our control in terms of some changes with Cam (Munster) going off and what not and I just thought I thought we handled that to the best of our ability.
“And then off the back of that we went out into the second half and really chased our game and we got it right in the first 15 to 20 minutes of the second half and that put us in a really good position.”
The Origin betting market’s reaction reflects both Queensland’s dominant finish and the prospect of returning home for the series decider. Suncorp Stadium has long been regarded as the spiritual home of Origin football, with the Maroons traditionally thriving in front of a hostile Brisbane crowd.
While New South Wales remain capable of bouncing back, concerns linger over the fitness of star halfback Nathan Cleary, who appeared restricted throughout Game II as he battled a painful hip pointer injury.
Cleary played through the issue at the MCG but was well below his usual influential standards as Queensland seized control of the contest after half-time. The Penrith playmaker will now have several weeks to recover before the decider and the Blues will be hopeful he can return closer to full fitness.
His availability and condition could prove crucial given New South Wales’ struggles to control the game once Queensland’s momentum surged.
Queensland also retain the luxury of having Reece Walsh waiting in the wings. The explosive fullback was an unused member of the Maroons squad in Game II, but his game breaking speed and attacking flair remain a potential wildcard for the decider.
Attention will now turn to team selections and injury updates ahead of Game III, but for the first time in the series Queensland enter as clear favourites after producing one of the great Origin second halves.
The decider will be played at Suncorp Stadium on July 8, with the Maroons aiming to complete a remarkable turnaround after dropping the opening game of the series.
The NRL season resumes on Friday night with a clash between the Knights and Dragons at McDonald Jones Stadium.
