NRL finals week 1: Rabbitohs v Knights betting tips
South Sydney and Newcastle kick off the NRL finals with a sudden-death shootout on Friday night. It’s the first of four cracking finals and this NRL elimination final may well be the toughest to predict with the teams so evenly matched.
The Rabbitohs and Knights have clashed twice already this year, with the Knights winning 42-38 in a round-nine clash and then the Bunnies prevailing 26-24 in the return clash in round 19. Overall the Knights have a good recent record against the Rabbits with four wins in the past five clashes.
Souths are playing in the finals for the first time since 2022 and will be desperate not to fall at the first hurdle. The teams both possess outstanding back lines, and if the Bunnies have any edge it is up front, where the Knights will feel the loss of towering prop Jacob Saifiti.
Newcastle won only three of their final eight regular-season games so will need to turn things around against South Sydney, who go into the finals riding the crest of the wave and with their strike weapon Latrell Mitchell fit again.
Rabbitohs v Knights team news
Rabbitohs: The best news for the Bunnies is that superstar Mitchell made it through 80 minutes on his return last week and he gives them a real weapon heading into the finals. They also regain young back-rower Tallis Duncan (hamstring), who missed the win over the Roosters, but they have lost tough veteran Euan Aitken (scapula). Matt Dufty was named in the No.1 jersey ahead of Jye Gray, who is on the pine and could really give them some zip when he is unleashed.
Knights: The Knights are fresh off the bye and regain winger Dom Young and forward Tyson Frizell after suspension as well as hooker Phoenix Crossland (knee). Boom forward Francis Manuleleua (elbow) has been named. On the downside, they have lost prop Jacob Saifiti to a lengthy ban and Trey Mooney (shoulder) is out for the rest of the year, with Cody Hopwood added to the starting side at prop.
Panthers top NRL title betting
There was little movement in the NRL title betting from last weekend, with the final four and final eight locked in before round 27 kicked off.
The Panthers remain the team to beat, while their opponents this week the Roosters are on the outer after losing rising star Sam Walker for the rest of the season. The Warriors-Dolphins match is pivotal and if you are one of the many who believe the Dolphins are headed to a grand final, it makes sense to back them to win the title before they take on the Wahs.
Elsewhere, we could not back the Sharks with stolen money after the way they let slip a top-four spot by losing four of their past five matches, all to teams sitting outside the top eight.
Read on for our Rabbitohs v Knights tips and winner prediction for their NRL elimination final clash.
Rabbitohs v Knights match information
- Kick-off: 7.50pm AEDT, Friday, September 11
- Venue: Allianz Stadium, Sydney
- Head to head odds: Rabbitohs $1.40, Knights $3
- Line betting: Rabbitohs (-7.5 points) $1.90, Knights (+7.5 points) $1.90
- Match total: 47.5 points: over $1.90, under $1.90
2026 NRL premiership betting
$2.50 Penrith Panthers
$3.60 New Zealand Warriors
$5.50 Redcliffe Dolphins
$9 Sydney Roosters
$21 Cronulla Sharks
$19 South Sydney Rabbitohs
$67 Newcastle Knights
$81 North Queensland Cowboys
Rabbitohs v Knights betting tips
The bookies have made the Rabbitohs red-hot favourites for this clash and while we think they will scrape through, the margin has been set at 7.5 points. These teams have already played two cliff-hangers this season and it won’t be a surprise if this again goes down to the wire.
Newcastle match up well against Souths and if it was not for the loss of Saifiti we would be tipping them here. But without him, the powerful Souths pack should have a slight edge and give the back line room to go to work.
But this is a final and you can be sure the Knights will bring the intensity that has been missing late in their season. With the likes of Fletcher Sharpe, Bradman Best and Kailyn Ponga in their line-up they will pose plenty of questions in attack.
Souths, with master coach Wayne Bennett calling the shots, have plenty of firepower of their own and should be able to send the home fans home happy in a tight finish.
Souths by 2 points.
- Newcastle +7.5 points/match total under 47.5 points at $3.30 with Australian betting sites.
- Alex Johnson to score 2+ tries at $2.80. The Souths flyer has 17 tries in 11 matches against the Knights.
NRL finals week 1, 2026
- Friday, September 11: Rabbitohs v Knights, Allianz Stadium, Sydney | 7.50pm
- Saturday, September 12: Warriors v Dolphins, Go Media Stadium, Auckland | 4.05pm
Sharks v Cowboys, Allianz Stadium, Sydney | 7.50pm - Sunday, September 13: Panthers v Roosters, CommBank Stadium, Sydney | 4.05pm
