NSW v Queensland betting tips and prediction
NSW is a short-priced favourite to win game 1 of the women’s State of Origin against Queensland in their home state at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle, on Thursday night.
NSW is priced at 1.35 to defeat the Maroons (3.20) with Australian betting sites, with the line set at 9.5 points and the over/under total points at 35.5.
The Blues are fresh off a 2-1 series win last year, but Queensland will take solace from the fact they won game 3 last year at the venue they will play at on Thursday night.
The Blues enter the opener with a settled line-up, retaining 14 players from last year’s series-winning squad as they chase back-to-back shields.
There are still key changes, with Teagan Berry and Millie Elliott returning after maternity leave, while Kennedy Cherrington shifts into the back row to reshape the pack.
The lack of an NRLW lead-in leaves limited recent form to assess, adding further uncertainty to the matchup.
Queensland, meanwhile, embrace the underdog tag and come in at an attractive price, but with a changing lineup. The Maroons could feature up to five debutantes, signalling a transition phase, with key figures such as Ali Brigginshaw and Tarryn Aiken (ACL) unavailable.
New faces, including Gold Coast winger Julia Robinson and Phoenix-Raini Hippi, will add pace out wide, with the Maroons likely to lean on youth and unpredictability in the series opener.
NSW v Queensland betting tips
Our NRLW betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value NSW v Queensland tips for Origin 1.
Phoenix-Raine Hippi to score anytime
The 19-year-old flyer from the Gold Coast Titans will be on debut, but has made a habit of scoring for her club side. We like her to score anytime here at 3.00 with BetRight Australia.
Jayme Fressard to score anytime
The NSW and Sydney Roosters star has been a weapon since crossing from Sevens, with her agility and ability to find gaps extraordinary. She is paying around 2.10 to score for the Blues on Thursday night.
Queensland + 9.5
We have a feeling the Queenslanders will not succumb to another series defeat easily. With a 9.5-point head start and plenty of unknowns, given the lack of exposed NRLW form this year, we are willing to take the value on offer. This option is paying 1.90 with NextBet.
NSW v Queensland prediction
NSW is in the box seat to go back-to-back in this series but Queensland have definitely freshened up their squad. We think the Blues’ greater experience should see them get it done in front of a home crowd, but we’ve seen the Maroons lift on the big stage before. Our final Blues v Maroons prediction? Blues by six points (18–12).
