RLWC semifinals confirmed, Aussies and Kiwis favoured to reach final
Australia and New Zealand have opened as favourites to reach the 2026 Rugby League World Cup final, although betting sites expect competitive semi-finals against Samoa and Tonga respectively.
The Kangaroos are 2.20 favourites to retain their world title, narrowly ahead of New Zealand at 2.50. Tonga (7.50) and Samoa (9.50) are considered outsiders to lift the trophy in Brisbane on November 15.
Both semi-finals will kick off at 8.05pm AEDT, with New Zealand facing Tonga in Newcastle on Saturday, November 7, before Australia meets Samoa in Sydney on Sunday.
The Rugby World Cup semifinals will begin on Saturday with the winners advancing to the final at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane on Sunday, November 15. Australia are chasing a fourth consecutive title, while New Zealand are seeking their first triumph since 2008.
New Zealand v Tonga – Saturday, November 7
Odds: New Zealand $1.45 | Tonga $2.75
New Zealand are 1.45 favourites to defeat Tonga (2.75) at McDonald Jones Stadium, despite their opponents progressing through the group stage unbeaten.
The Kiwis recovered from a narrow 24-22 opening defeat to Australia with emphatic victories over the Cook Islands (82-16) and Fiji (78-0), finishing second in Pool A.
Tonga qualified with three consecutive victories, defeating England 30-12, Lebanon 36-0 and Samoa 20-18. Addin Fonua-Blake scored the decisive try against Samoa to secure top spot in the combined Pools B and C standings.
The Kiwis will be without winger Ronaldo Mulitalo, who is suspended following his dismissal against Fiji. Fullback Kalyn Ponga could return after suffering a fractured forearm against Australia, while Tonga welcomed halfback Isaiya Katoa back from an ankle injury for their victory over Samoa.
Australia v Samoa – Sunday, November 8
Odds: Australia 1.45 | Samoa 2.75
Defending champions Australia are 1.45 favourites with NextBet (NextBet review) to defeat Samoa (2.75) at Allianz Stadium in Sydney, setting up a potential rematch with New Zealand in the final.
The Kangaroos progressed unbeaten through Pool A, defeating New Zealand 24-22, Fiji 36-22 and the Cook Islands 66-6.
Samoa secured their semi-final berth after comprehensive victories over France (78-4) and Papua New Guinea (64-6). Their unbeaten record ended with a narrow 20-18 defeat to Tonga on Sunday, leaving them second in the combined Pools B and C standings.
Australia remain without injured halfback Mitchell Moses, while Cameron Murray is expected to be available after missing the Cook Islands match. Samoa face concerns over five-eighth Chanel Harris-Tavita, who suffered a hamstring injury against Tonga, while captain Junior Paulo was placed on report for a shoulder charge.
