Zverev new US Open favourite as Alcaraz exit opens draw
Alexander Zverev is the new betting favourite to win the US Open after cruising into the semi-finals and seeing defending champion Carlos Alcaraz dumped out by rising American star Ben Shelton.
The German top seed defeated Botic van de Zandschulp 6-2, 7-5, 6-1 at Arthur Ashe Stadium on Wednesday, setting up a Friday semi-final against Russia’s Karen Khachanov.
Zverev is now 1.91 favourite in the outright market, ahead of Shelton at 2.50, Frances Tiafoe at 7.00 and Khachanov at 11.00, according to tennis betting sites.
The market reflects a dramatically different US Open landscape after Shelton stunned Alcaraz in a five-set quarter-final epic.
The 23-year-old American recovered after losing the opening set to beat the seven-time Grand Slam champion 6-7, 6-1, 6-3, 1-6, 7-6, sealing victory at 3.33am in the latest finish in US Open history.
Shelton will meet fellow American Tiafoe in the other semi-final, meaning Zverev is the only man remaining in the tournament to have previously won a Grand Slam title.
That experience, coupled with the more favourable half of the draw, makes the 29-year-old an understandable favourite.
Zverev finally broke his Grand Slam duck at Roland Garros earlier this year and has backed that breakthrough up with an outstanding major season. He also reached the Wimbledon final and has now made the semi-finals at all four Grand Slams in 2026. His victory on Wednesday was his 23rd major match win of the season, breaking Boris Becker’s German men’s record of 22 set in 1989.
“I think you saw in the first two rounds, I really didn’t play well,” Zverev said after reaching the final four.
“In other tournaments I would be out in the first round, but here I can fight back and play best of five sets, play 4-1/2 hours. I’ve started playing better throughout the tournament and I’m definitely happy to be in the semi-finals here.”
Zverev will nevertheless need to get past Khachanov, who is chasing his first Grand Slam final.
The Russian advanced when Belgian Alexander Blockx retired injured during their quarter-final, with Khachanov leading 6-2, 7-5, 3-2. It is his third career Grand Slam semi-final after reaching the same stage at the 2022 US Open and 2023 Australian Open.
Zverev holds a 6-3 career record against Khachanov, although all three of the Russian’s victories have come on hard courts.
On the other side of the draw, Shelton and Tiafoe ensure an American will reach Sunday’s men’s final. Neither has previously played in a Grand Slam final, while Khachanov is also yet to progress beyond the last four.
That leaves Zverev as the only major champion standing — and, for the first time at this US Open, the man the betting market says everyone else has to beat.
