Collingwood v Adelaide betting tips and prediction
Welcome to our Collingwood v Adelaide betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL round 1 clash at the MCG on Saturday night.
The Magpies are a narrow 1.73 favourite to defeat the Crows (2.06) and inflict more pain after beating them in last year’s finals series.
Betting sites have set the Magpies-Crows line at 3.5 points which is unlikely to attract many suitors, while the total points over/under has been set at 172.5.
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Collingwood, who have been tipped to slide down the AFL ladder this year, started their season with a hard-fought but controlled win over St Kilda in Opening Round, with it typically set up by the magnificent Nick Daicos.
While the Magpies have named an unchanged line-up for this clash, there is some doubt around star forward Jamie Elliott, who has missed training this week with illness. If he fails to come up, youngster Charlie West or Will Hayes loom as likely replacements.
The Magpies have just three players on their injury list, with defenders Darcy Moore, Jeremy Howe and Reef McInnness all banged up, but set to to return this season.
Adelaide will be opening their account against the Magpies with several new faces in tow, with these being Lions premiership player Callum Ah Chee and youngsters Lachlan McAndrew and Toby Murray.
The Crows have indicated star forward Riley Thilthorpe will play despite a back injury, with this a major boost given the absence of Dan Curtin, Mitch Hinge, Mark Keane, Izak Rankine and possibly James Peatling, who has been recovering from a hamstring.
Collingwood v Adelaide betting tips
Our AFL betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Collingwood v Adelaide tips:
Dan McStay 3+ goals
The Magpies have been chopped up by Crows defender Mark Keane in the air in recent matches and his absence will be felt here. McStay has suffered through injuries at the Pies, but looks fit this year, and with long time spearhead Brody Mihocek now a Demon, will get plenty of chances deep. Swans recruit Jack Buller looked close to a breakthrough game against the Saints and won’t die wondering. McStay is paying 3.45 to kick 3+ goals, while the 6.80 on Buller reaching the same is also tempting.
Riley Thilthorpe 3+ goals
Collingwood is without captain Darcy Moore and veteran Jeremy Howe, leaving their defence threadbare and despite holding up against the Saints, could be exposed against the dominant Crows forward line. Thilthorpe is the obvious one at 2.60 to kick 3+ goals, while veteran Taylor Walker at 6.80 is not the worst bet, given plays well fresh.
Possessions betting tips
Collingwood star Nick Daicos is an obvious one for your multis after his cracking game against St Kilda, but he does not offer much value these days. Other Pies worth considering including for possessions include Dan Houston (20+ at 1.38), with his role seemingly more prominent this year and Pat Lipinski (20+ possessions at 2.10). A roughie for possessions betting is Ed Allan, who is paying 5.60 to reach 20.
Adelaide is traditionally a hard team to peg for possessions betting, with heavy rotations through their midfield. We expect The Crows to use Josh Rachele more through there this year and we’re gonna have something on him to reach 20+ at 2.60 with Neds. Jordan Dawson, who should expect Harry Perryman for company this week, is another we’re likely to take for 25+ touches at 2.10.
Collingwood v Adelaide prediction
Adelaide is likely to improve from this point in the season, given the personnel they are missing, while the Pies, barring key defenders, are at full strength. The Crows have the weight of expectation on them this year, while the Pies are expected to slide, creating an intriguing clash between two traditional AFL powers. The Magpies look stronger through the middle in 2026 with a fit-again Jordan De Goey, and have freshened their forward line via the Buller acquisition. While a Crows win on the back of their dominant key forwards would not shock, we just think the Pies are better placed right now, and with a rabid MCG crowd we expect them to score a narrow victory. Our final Collingwood v Adelaide prediction? Collingwood by 17 points.
