Adelaide v Carlton betting tips and prediction
Welcome to our Adelaide v Carlton betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL round 5 clash at the Adelaide Oval on Thursday night.
The Crows (1.14) are expected to defeat the Blues (5.75) and kick off Gather Round in their home state in fine fashion, but the Victorian club has not been horrible despite their late game capitulations.
The Crows-Blues line has been set at 34.5 points, while the match points total is at 169.5, with both of these markets set to attract some attention.
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Adelaide has won just one from four games to start the season, but they will not be panicking, with these losses coming against the Western Bulldogs, Geelong and Fremantle, all teams expected to feature in September.
The Crows will regain wingman Isaac Cumming (back) and Rory Laird (calf) while Toby Murray and Mitch Hinge will also come into consideration after overcoming their injuries.
Doubt will creep into the Crows camp if they lose to a Carlton team that has blown winning positions against Melbourne and North Melbourne in successive weeks, putting the blowtorch firmly on coach Michael Voss.
The Blues were 22 points up at three quarter time, before the Roos slammed on seven goals in the final term to consign them to another loss, with their record 1-3 heading into this important clash.
They will be without star defender Jacob Weitering (concussion) and his key position mate Harry Dean (concussion), leaving them threadbare down back against the powerful Crows talls, athough this is offset by Darcy Fogarty missing another week.
The Blues are likely to consider Nick Haynes after strong form at VFL level following an injury-interrupted pre-season, while Zac Williams is also likely to return from injury. They will again be without Cooper Lord.
Adelaide v Carlton betting tips
Our AFL betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Adelaide v Carlton betting tips:
Riley Thilthorpe 3+ goals
The big fella has burnt us so far in 2026 but without Weitering and Dean in the line-up, he needs to fill his boots against the Blues. The rumour is he is suffering from a back injury, but he looked to be moving okay against Fremantle to us. He is paying 1.98 to kick 3+ goals.
Adelaide to win 1-39 points
The Crows don’t have the form to blow the Blues away in this contest, but we’re confident they will win at home, with the 1-39 margin juicy at odds of 2.25. with Neds Australia.
Possessions betting tips
The Crows are a tough team to pin down for possessions betting, with it really a raffle which of their players will reach 25 , with Wayne Milera and James Peatling the only ones to make it last weekend. As usual Jordan Dawson and Josh Worrall will be around the mark, while Peatling has the ability to reach 25+, although he might be given a job minding one of the Blues stars. We’re going to take Dawson for 22+.
Blues star midfielder Sam Walsh has been much better this year and youngster Jagga Smith has given them an edge, although his exposure has been dulled somewhat by Adam Cerra coming back into the team. We’ll be taking Walsh for 25+ (teams just don’t tag him, because his disposal is not elite) and include George Hewett for 22+.
Patrick Cripps 2+ goals
Cripps has been floated as potential trade for the Blues this week, but we don’ think their captain is going anywhere, although he needs to add more strings to his bow, given his ageing legs and the fact he’s played midfield his entire career. Cripps has ability forward and can take a grab and although we’re extremely suspect on his kicking at goal, but we’ll back him here to kick 2+ because of the long odds of 11.50. Just keep an eye on the teams, if Hewett or another key mid go out of the line-up ditch this option.
Adelaide v Carlton prediction
The Crows must win this clash to get their season back on track, because it can slip away quickly, but the Blues will be equally as desperate to notch up a second victory. The home team just looks more sorted at either end of the ground. Their forward line has more ammo, with Thilthorpe and Walker holding the key posts, while Isaac Rankine and Josh Rachele have class the Blues can only dream of. Ultimately, we think the Crows will win this, but there is a nagging suspicion the Blues will give this one a real shake. Our final Adelaide v Carlton prediction? Crows by eight points.
