Geelong v Western Bulldogs betting tips and prediction
Geelong will face an early-season test of their premiership credentials when they face the Western Bulldogs at GMHBA Stadium on Friday night.
The Cats are a 1.55 favourite with online betting sites to defeat the Bulldogs (2.50) in what is shaping as a blockbuster battle between two teams fancied to push deep into September.
The Cats-Bulldogs line has been set at 11.5 points, while the over/under market is at 187.5 points with Neds Australia.
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Geelong will potentially be boosted by the return of Patrick Dangerfield, but they will take no chances with their important veteran, while Mark O’Connor (suspension) and Jack Henry (oblique) are ruled out.
The Cats are fresh off an easy win over West Coast in Gather Round, while they should have beaten Hawthorn the week before, with their record of 3-2 probably underwhelming given their form.
Veteran utility and rookie pick-up Mark Blicavs will play his 300th game for the Cats.
The Bulldogs will be sweating on the availability of ruckman Tim English after he was sorely missed against Hawthorn last start. Tom Liberatore (hamstring) is likely to return, while Ed Richards, who looks to have escaped a serious injury after going off against Hawthorn, is listed as a test.
The Bulldogs’ loss to the Hawks was their first loss of the year, with it highlighting a lack of depth in the ruck and a reluctance to throw Sam Darcy in there, which is surprising given the changed rules suiting athletic big men.
Geelong v Western Bulldogs betting tips
Our AFL betting expert has assessed the market and found some value Geelong v Western Bulldogs tips:
Ollie Henry to kick 3+ goals
The former Magpie looked the best he has in a long while against West Coast, but now must replicate this form against a good team. The Dogs can struggle to stop mid-sized forwards and Henry can take a grab. He is also offering better value than Neale and Cameron at 4.80 to kick 3+ goals. Keep an eye on whether Dangerfield plays, because this could force Henry further from goal.
Dash brothers to continue form
Max Holmes played off halfback to great effect last week, while Bailey Smith ran around gathering the ball at will, but struggled to hit a target. They will find the going tougher against the Bulldogs and Marcus Bontempelli, but we expect they will again rack up a mountain of posessions. Take them both for 25+ with confidence, with these two great option to pad out same-game multis. If the Dogs go with Adam Treloar, jump on him for 25+ at decent odds.
Rhylee West 2+ goals
West kicked 0.4 on their loss to Hawthorn last start, while we were riding him, with this a repeat tip. We figure, if he converted, he would have paid and again looms as critically important for the Dogs with their small forward stocks largely sitting on the sidelines. West was arguably the best small forward in the game at times last year and we’ll give him one more shot for 2+, with this option paying 2.85 with Neds. Shaun Mannagh for the Cats is also due, with the mid-forward at the same price for 2+ goals.
Geelong v Western Bulldogs prediction
We’re going to be watching selection closely for this one, with several key Dogs under injury clouds, including prime-mover Richards and English, who is likely to have another week off with his MCL injury. Given this missing personnel we’re going to take Geelong, with their line-up a bit more settled. But having said that, a Sam Darcy bag and Dogs win would not surprise, given the Cats have fallen short against Hawthorn and Gold Coast, two clubs in the premiership window. Our final Cats v Dogs prediction? Cats by seven points.
