St Kilda v Hawthorn betting tips and prediction
Welcome to our St Kilda v Hawthorn betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL round 12 clash at Marvel Stadium on Thursday night.
The Saints are priced at 2.85 to cause an upset against the Hawks (1.43), with Ross Lyon’s team missing several first-choice players including Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera.
NextBet Australia has set the Saints-Hawks line at 15.5 points, while the over under points total sits at 180.5 points.
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St Kilda is fresh off a hard-fought loss to Fremantle in a clash they pushed the premiership fancy all the way in, despite the absence of Wanganeen-Milera, Liam Ryan, Mitch Owens and Jack Higgins.
Saints defender Dougal Howard has now also joined the injury list after suffering a hamstring in the Dockers clash.
They will have a new face to consider after recruiting Southport small forward Campbell Lake in the mid-season draft on Tuesday night, with the 175cm VFL player set to be a pressure forward at the higher level.
Hawthorn star Will Day could return from a shoulder reconstructions after playing a half in the VFL last weekend, while veteran forward Jack Gunston is also a likely inclusion.
The Hawks are unlikely to take any chances with injured fullback Tom Barrass (hamstring), but the former West Coast player should be back before their mid-season bye.
The Hawks have also bolstered their small forward stocks after securing Woodville West Torrens star Max Beattie in the mid-season draft, wth the former Wodonga Raiders player working hard for his chance in the AFL.
St Kilda v Hawthorn betting tips and prediction
WGL’s AFL betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Saints v Hawks tips:
Sam Flanders 25+ possessions
The prolific Flanders is beginning to run into some strong form for the Saints and has surpassed 25+ possessions three weeks running. He’s also offering nice value at 2.18 to repeat the dose against the Hawks. This is our best of the day given the players missing from the Saints’ engine room will see him spend more time there.
Nick Watson 3+ goals
Watson was typically brilliant in the Hawks tight win over Adelaide in Launceston, with 11 score involvements, including two goals from just 12 possessions. The Saints will put time into him, but the way he plays means restricting his possession count is probably the best you can hope for. He’s paying 1.74 to kick 2+ goals.
Jack Ginnnivan 20+ disposals
Ginnivan has been quiet in the last month which has seen his odds balloon out to 2.68 to reach 20 possessions. He will enjoy being back in the more Ginni-friendly conditions at Marvel, rather than Tasmania, and we think he’ll bounce back this week.
St Kilda v Hawthorn prediction
The Saints have undoubtedly improved this season despite the naysayers doubts about their recruiting strategy. Their main issue at the moment is their injuries to key players, which have left them light-on for star power. Despite this they managed to push Freo all the way in the west last week, before falling away late. We can see a similar spirited effort against Hawthorn, but they will ultimately fall short. We like Hawthorn to win 1-39, which is paying 2.25 with Sportsbet. Our final St Kilda v Hawthorn prediction? Hawks by 20 points.
