Point Of Law heads open Melbourne Cup market as roughies firm
Point Of Law remains the 6.50 favourite for Tuesday’s $10 million Melbourne Cup at Flemington, but a series of betting moves has highlighted just how open this year’s race is shaping up to be.
Just six of the 24 runners are currently trading below $15 with Australian betting sites, with Point Of Law heading the market ahead of Trustyourinstinct (7.50), Hopewell Rock (10.00), Shockletz (10.00), Juja Kibo (11.00) and Middle Earth (14.00).
The relatively crowded top of the market suggests bookmakers are struggling to separate the leading contenders, with several runners attracting support following Saturday’s barrier draw.
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Point Of Law, one of seven Melbourne Cup runners trained by Ciaron Maher, drew barrier nine and remains steady at his opening quote of 6.50, having briefly eased to 7 during early betting.
The draw appears favourable for the favourite, with barrier nine producing four previous Melbourne Cup winners, most recently Efficient in 2007.
However, Maher played down the importance of barrier positions when assessing his leading chances.
“I don’t think the draw really makes a whole lot of difference to their chances,” Maher said.
“The favourite, Point Of Law, is obviously a very talented horse, Shockletz has got a huge chance, I think at the weight.
“Middle Earth had the right preparation for it, you could keep going (through seven runners) but I think one of those three (best chances).”
Middle Earth, who drew barrier one, has remained relatively steady in betting, opening at 14.00 and trading between 13.00 and 15.00 before returning to 14.00.
One of the most notable market moves has come for So You Are, who has shortened from an opening quote of 23.00 into 14.00.
The Bjorn Baker-trained runner, who will be ridden by Rachel King from barrier seven, has attracted sustained support, with successive price reductions from 26.00 into 14.00.
Hopewell Rock has also attracted support, easing from 9.50 out to 10.00 after briefly touching 9.00, while Trustyourinstinct has eased from an opening 6.50 to 7.50 despite drawing barrier 18.
Juja Kibo has shortened from 12.00 into 11.00, while several outsiders have experienced considerably larger fluctuations.
Asterix has firmed from an opening 91.00 into 71.00, having traded as high as 101.00, while Soul Of Spain has shortened from 46.00 into 34.00.
Zahrann has also attracted interest, moving from 31.00 into 26.00, while Wine Dark Sea has drifted significantly from 31.00 to 51.00.
James J Braddock has been another notable drifter, easing from 10.00 to 15.00, while Royal Supremacy has moved from 46.00 to 51.00.
The market movements suggest punters are looking beyond the leading contenders for value, although the fluctuations alone do not establish how much money has been wagered on individual runners.
Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounds the participation of jockey Harry Coffey, who is booked to ride Shockletz after suffering a fall.
Shockletz remains prominent in betting at 10.00, unchanged from his opening quote, despite drawing barrier 17 and the uncertainty surrounding Coffey’s availability.
With six runners priced below 15.00 and another two sitting exactly on that mark, the 2026 Melbourne Cup is shaping as a competitive betting contest.
The market remains particularly sensitive to late developments, with jockey availability, track conditions and further betting support likely to influence prices before Tuesday’s race.
