AFL semi-finals odds, team news and early tips

AFL round 12 odds 2021 - covid fixture update

Richmond are an unbackable favourite in the betting for their AFL semi-final against St Kilda on Friday night.

The Tigers have been installed at the $1.30 quote despite their error-strewn loss to Brisbane, the first time they had lost to the Lions since round 7, 2009.

The Saints recorded a stirring win over the Western Bulldogs in an elimination final, which was their first final since Ross Lyon coached them against Sydney in their 2011 elimination final loss to Sydney.

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Despite their upset win over the Dogs, the Saints are outsiders at $3.45 for this clash, their chances given a glancing blow when star veteran Paddy Ryder limped from the ground with a hamstring strain after a best-on-ground performance.

Geelong will enter Saturday’s semi-final against Collingwood with a huge amount of pressure on them, after succumbing to Port Adelaide in their qualifying final.

They have been priced at $1.68 to defeat the Magpies at $2.18, while the $1.90 line has been set at 5.5 points by Unibet. 

The Cats’ recent dismal finals record, which has seen them win just four finals from 16 attempts, has them needing a win against the Magpies to ensure Chris Scott does not go into 2021 with any doubts about their game plan and its ability to stand up in finals football.

However, they face a Magpies outfit that is riding high after a one-point victory over arch rival West Coast in Perth. The Magpies were brilliant and appeared to flick the switch and play a more aggressive brand of football. They also have a long recent finals record against the Cats, with both teams winning some big games.

It’s also worth noting that this might be Gary Ablett Junior’s final AFL game, with the Cats star easily sitting among the top AFL players of all time

Richmond v St Kilda odds & semi-final fixture

When & where: Metricon Stadium, Friday, 7.50pm
Head to head odds: Richmond ($1.30) v St Kilda ($3.45)
Line: Richmond -18.5 ($1.90) v St Kilda +18.5 ($1.90)
Over/Under: Not available yet.
First goal-scorer: Not available yet.

Richmond are likely to include star spearhead Tom Lynch after they erred on the side of caution against Brisbane. The Tigers have several players in the gun, and could dump veteran Bachar Houli to inject more speed into their side. We can’t see Richmond going out in straight sets in this one, and they are priced accordingly. The question we have to ask ourselves is St Kilda, who have certainly lost key big Ryder to a hamstring injury, capable of causing another upset and continuing the fairytale?

Our early Richmond v St Kilda best bet: Richmond to cover the -18.5 line at $1.90 with Unibet.

Geelong v Collingwood odds & semi-final fixture

When & where: The Gabba, Saturday, 7.40pm
Head to head odds: Geelong ($1.68) v Collingwood ($2.18)
Line: Geelong -3.5 ($1.90) v Collingwood +3.5 ($1.90)
Over/Under: Not available yet.
First goal-scorer: Not available yet.

Geelong need another avenue to goal and look likely to include Esava Ratugolea after overlooking him for the Port Adelaide fixture. While Tom Hawkins didn’t kick a goal against the Power, if his conversion was better they were right in the contest. His battle with Jarryd Roughead and Darcy Moore could very well shape this game. The Magpies got through their mission to the West reasonably unscathed, but keep an eye on Jordan De Goey, who looked ginger in the dying moments after a critical clearance.

Our early Geelong v Collingwood best bet: Geelong to win 1-24 points at Unibet paying $2.75.

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