2022 AFL Rising Star Award Preview, Tips & Predictions

With the 2022 AFL season some three months away, Australian bookmakers have already framed markets on plenty of the season-long betting markets, including on an intriguing battle for the Rising Star Award.

We have run the rule over the 2021 crop of AFL draftees to try to find the best chances of landing the 2022 Rising Star Award; of course, plenty of draftees from earlier years are still eligible for the award and, indeed, head into the season with a major advantage in terms of physical strength thanks to at least an extra year in the AFL system.

Early betting from leading Australian bookie TopSport is headed by the two most talked about players from the 2021 AFL draft: the No.1 selection Jason Horne-Francis, who was drafted by North Melbourne, and Collingwood father-son selection Nick Daicos, who was picked up by the Magpies No.4 overall.

Of course, Daicos, as the son of club legend Peter Daicos, was available only to the Magpies, so it’s impossible to say he would not have gone No.1 had the Kangaroos had an unfettered choice.

Horne-Francis has already performed strongly against men in the SANFL, while Daicos has displayed his obvious skills largely in the junior ranks. Both players are strongly built enough to suggest they are ready to play with the big boys from the start of season 2022, so fans are unlikely to have to wait long to see them at the top level.

You can check out past winners by position at our AFL Rising Star information page, to gain some insight into what sort of player is likely to win the award.

What to look for in an AFL Rising Star winner

There are several factors that most of the past winners had in common.

Not the least of these is that, like the Brownlow Medal for best overall player in the competition, it is often won by a mid-field player. Melbourne’s Luke Jackson bucked the trend to win in 2021, but this award has often been a numbers game.

Also, the tall, gangly kids who are earmarked for key positions and the ruck often take a few years to find their feet at the top level of the game.

You need to find a player who will quickly become locked in to the best 22 at their club; this can also mean that youngsters at clubs further down the ladder are more likely to win as they will often get more exposure early on in their careers.

So, in summary, the likely winner will be a midfielder/winger/halfback who is strongly enough built to stand up to the rigours of senior AFL football. Occasionally a skinny kid will stand out above the pack as Jaidyn Stephenson did at Collingwood in 2018; in this situation they need an elite attribute such as electric speed or game smarts to find space away from the bigger-bodied veterans trying to keep them out of the game.

Carlton ace Sam Walsh is another who springs to mind; he was slight in 2019 but boasted incredible ball handling, game smarts and wonderful endurance, if not dynamic pace.

Our top 5 chances for the 2022 Rising Star award

Nick Daicos (Collingwood): Former Magpies coach Nathan Buckley said Daicos, son of Peter and little brother of rising young player Josh, would likely have played most games in 2021 had he been available to the Magpies a year earlier. So it seems likely the Magpies’ great hope will be thrust straight into the heart of battle. Expect to see him lining up in round one, most likely on a back or forward flank. Daicos is the $4.33 favourite with most Australian betting sites.

Jason Horne-Francis (North Melbourne): The No.1 pick is an outstanding talent and has already proven his mettle against men, starring in the SANFL for South Adelaide in 2021. In fact, it was his performance in a losing preliminary final for the Panthers that all but guaranteed he would be the No.1 pick in the national draft. This guy is tough, quick and ready to step straight into the action for the young Kangaroos.

Josh Rachele (Adelaide): We expect this explosive small forward to be on the radar pretty quickly, and also heading to one of the rebuilding clubs, Rachele should get early chances to shine. And that is what he does. He’s not big but has brilliant athleticism and has been compared to the likes of Robbie Gray and Toby Greene. He’s also a crowd-pleaser. We think he could have a similar impact to what the electric Connor Rozee did in his first season at Port Adelaide and that would be enough to put him right in the mix.

Lachie Jones (Port Adelaide): TopSport don’t have the Power defender in their market but it is surely an oversight. If you contact them, you could expect around the $26-$41 at which he is quoted by some rival bookies. Jones looked the part in his six games for the Power in a first season interrupted by a serious ankle injury but in 2022 you can expect him to be even more heavily involved. He offers great value in this market as he should be straight into the action again from round 1. Looks a real class act of a player.

Logan McDonald (Sydney): Another second-year player who will benefit enormously from the year in the system and is likely to get far more opportunity in 2022 than he did in a debut season which yielded nine goals from seven matches. The full-forward will likely spearhead a rising Swans team which has some wonderful ball users and will give him enough chances of kicking 40+ goals for the season. That would certainly put him right at the pointy end of voting for this award.

TopSport Rising Star Award winner betting 2022

$4.20 Jason Horne-Francis
$4.80 Nick Daicos
$7 Finn Callaghan, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan
$11 Josh Rachele, Neil Erasmus
$13 Jake Bowey, Josh Ward
$15 Sam Darcy
$21 Ben Hobbs, Finlay Macrae, Mac Andrew, Matthew Johnson, Mitch Knevitt
$26 Campbell Chesser, Jeremy Sharp, Josh Goater, Jye Amiss, Leek Alleer, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Sam Butler
$34 Heath Chapman, Jacob Van Rooyen, Matthew Roberts
$41 Angus Sheldrick, Arlo Draper, Darcy Wilmot, Josh Fahey, Josh Gibcus, Ned Long $51 Connor MacDonald, Corey Warner, Jesse Motlop, Josh Sinn, Judson Clarke, Mitch Owens, Tyler Sonsie
$61+ others

Our recommended wagers

Nick Daicos (Collingwood) looks the goods and will only get shorter in betting in the lead-up to the season as the Magpies hordes pile on. Daicos is paying $4.80 with TopSport. We think he will be an instant hit and can be backed with confidence. But save on Lachie Jones (Port Adelaide), who we think should be among the favourites for this award but is at $25-plus.

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