Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn betting tips and winner prediction
Welcome to our Brisbane v Hawthorn betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL round 22 clash at the Gabba on Friday night.
The Lions (1.70) are favourites to defeat the Hawks (2.17) despite being dismantled by charging Carlton last round, and the Hawks strong form.
The Lions-Hawks line has been set at a paltry 5.5 points, while the total match points mark is at 187.5.
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Brisbane has won their last two clashes against the Hawks, with both of these coming last season, meaning it’s hard to read too much into these results, given Sam Mitchell’s team’s improvement and the Lions mixed form this year.
The Lions, who were hit by the injury stick against Carlton, are confident Hugh McCluggage, Ryan Lester and Logan Morris will be fit to take on the Hawks, but they will need to replace Keidean Coleman (concussion), with veteran Dayne Zorko the likely man. Darcy Gardiner also looms as a likely inclusion to combat the Hawks’ bevy of tall forwards.
The Hawks are likely to recall Mitch Lewis (concussion) after he swiftly worked through the protocols, while Karl Amon faces a fitness test following his knee surgery.
Brisbane v Hawthorn betting tips
WGL’s AFL betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Brisbane v Hawthorn betting tips:
Josh Dunkley 25+ possessions
With an injury cloud surrounding McCluggage the Lions will need Dunkley at the coalface, with the tough midfielder consistent this year, despite the Lions slowly changing their midfield to the new generation. We think Dunkley and Neale will know the importance of this clash and win plenty of ball against the Hawks’ deep midfield.
Cam Rayner 2+ goals
Rayner worked exceptionally hard against Carlton for one goal and 20 possessions. Either Rayner just is not that good, or the wheel will turn for him. If he can kick 2+ goals you are looking at odds of 2.95, which is great value for a guy who is likely to play deep most of the day.
Mitch Lewis 3+ goals
Lewis was in outstanding form prior to his concussion and looms as a key player in this contest. The Lions key backs have struggled for continuity, and we think Lewis might be the man to cash in this week, after a week off. He’s paying 3.80 to kick 3+ in what is looming as perfect conditions for key forwards.
Brisbane v Hawthorn prediction
The Lions are in a precarious position despite still being well-placed to finish in the top four. We’re just not sure how good they are, or whether they can win a third successive premiership. At their best, they have the Hawks covered, but on exposed form anything could happen in this clash. For Lions fans if Eric Hipwood goes to a Hawks forward you should be worried, but we suspect he might be playing twos give the return of Gardiner and their well-stocked forward line. Our final Brisbane v Hawthorn prediction? Lions by six points.
