Brisbane v Fremantle betting tips and prediction
Welcome to our Brisbane v Fremantle betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL round 12 clash at the Gabba on Saturday afternoon.
The Lions (1.67) are favourites to defeat the Dockers (2.20) despite the wavering form of the reigning premiers and the WA team’s barnstorming start to 2026.
Brisbane are in the unusual position of coming off two losses, with these coming against Geelong and GWS, with the latter producing a stunning 14 goal third term to blow the Lions away, eventually winning by 78 points.
MORE: AFL betting previews
Meanwhile, Fremantle have dropped just one game to sit with a 10-1 record heading into this contest, with their last victory a hard-fought five goal win over St Kilda.
The Dockers were soundly beaten by Brisbane at Optus Stadium in round 23 last season, but they are a different team this year, and have the weapons to challenge the Lions.
They have also received a boost with Alex Pearce recalled in place of Oscar McDonald, but they have left their star ballwinner Hayden Young out for another week, with lingering concussion issues, while Caleb Serong will also miss.
Brisbane has recalled tough midfielder Jarrod Berry, Noah Answerth and Cody Curtin, with James Tunstill, Sam Marshall and Will McLachlan going out of the line-up.
Brisbane v Fremantle betting tips
WGL’s AFL betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Brisbane v Fremantle betting tips:
Cam Rayner 3+ goals
You get the feeling Cam Rayner would be bitterly disappointed with the start to his season, with his output not matching his arrogant swagger. He kicked two opening quarter goals against the Giants and then went missing in the third quarter avalanche. We expect Chris Fagan delivered a few home truths to Rayner and some of his fellow Lions leaders. We expect a response and 3+ goals to Rayner is paying 6.00 with Neds Australia. Outstanding value for such a talented player.
Andrew Brayshaw 30+ possessions
Brownlow Medal winner Brayshaw is the Dockers number one midfielder when Caleb Serong is out of the line-up and he will spend considerably more time in the engine room this week. He reached 25 last week, with his last quarter a big reason in why his team kicked away. We think he’s clicked into gear now and 30+ is paying 3.20 to reach 30+ possessions. Another to consider in Dockers colours is Murphy Reid, who has reached 30 touches in successive weeks, and is paying 4.75 to reach the mark again.
Hugh McCluggage 25+ possessions
The Lions star has arguably been their most disappointing player in 2026. At his best, McCluggage is prolific and skilful. Part of his decline has been greater midfield minutes to the likes of Will Ashcroft, who just does not have the skills of his more experienced teammate. We think McCluggage back into the guts to drive the midfield, while relegating Ashcroft to a secondary role, can turn the Lions around. McCluggage for 25+ is offering value at 2.45.
Fremantle v Brisbane prediction
The Dockers are missing two of their absolute best players Young and Serong, but they do have the talent to win this game. We just think the Lions might be in trouble if they don’t lift here, and while they won’t panic if they lose, we’re tipping them to get back on the winners’ list against a weakened Dockers. Expect a close, low-scoring battle, between two teams that are aiming to push deep into September. Our final Brisbane v Fremantle prediction? Lions by 16 points.
