Dragons v Broncos free tips & odds, round 13, 2021: Jack de Belin returns
Welcome to our St George Illawarra-Brisbane match preview, prediction and odds update for their NRL clash at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Sydney, on Thursday night, June 3.
Bookies have made the home team hot favourites for this match, but that is mainly down to the poor form of the Broncos rather than any great faith in the Dragons.
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Once upon a time the Broncos would be decimated come Origin time but it’s an indictment on their squad that they have only two players missing to play in next week’s State of Origin.
The Dragons are on a four-game winning streak against the Broncos, with their most recent clash resulting in a 28-24 in Brisbane in round 15, 2020.
But despite a promising start to the season, Anthony Griffin’s side has lost six of its past seven matches and a lot of those losses have come against teams outside the eight, so it’s hard to get too excited about their form. They have been hard hit by injury and suspension as they have crashed to three straight losses heading into this.
The Broncos shocked many when they beat the injury ravaged Roosters a fortnight ago but returned to their disappointing form last round against the rampant Melbourne Storm.
With wet weather forecast this could degenerate into a survival of the fittest scenario and that has to favour the home team.
Dragons v Broncos team news for round 13
The Dragons lose one player, second-row enforcer Tariq Sims, to Origin duty for NSW but the big news for them is the return of former Origin player Jack de Belin after 2.5 years out faving serious criminal charges.
De Belin returned to action in reserve grade last week and has been named on the bench in first grade, while elsewhere more cavalry is starting to arrive for the struggling Dragons.
Flying fullback Matt Dufty is back from a shoulder issue, while prop Josh Kerr returns from suspension, along with winger Mikaele Ravalawa.
Brisbane have their best two players in prop Payne Haas and winger Xavier Coates on Origin duty for NSW and Queensland respectively, while five-eighth Anthony Milford has again been axed.
Prop Matt Lodge and half Tyson Gamble are back in the side after serving suspensions, while boom youngster Selwyn Cobbo makes his NRL debut on the wing. Captain Alex Glenn is finally back after a calf injury, forcing Dale Copley out of the 17.
Dragons v Broncos
Kick-off: 7.50pm local time
Venue: Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Sydney
Head to head odds: St George Illawarra $1.45, Brisbane $2.75
Line: St George Illawarra (-6.5 points) $1.85, Brisbane (+6.5 points) $1.95
Match total: 47.5 points: over $1.90, under $1.90
Dragons v Broncos free betting tips
Our NRL betting expert has highlighted his free tips for Thursday’s game.
Selwyn Cobbo 2 tries exactly
The Brisbane youngster has been compared to great of the game such as Greg Inglis and Latrell Mitchell. With the Broncos’ No.1 try-scorer Xavier Coates on Origin duty this is a great chance for Cobbo to burst on to the scene. TopSport have an exact tries market on Cobbo as follows: 0 tries $1.61, 1 try $3.05, 2 tries $7.50, 3+ tries $19.
Points total under 47.5 at $1.90
Neither of these teams is lauded for their defence but they also have plenty of issues with fluency in attack. Recent games between these teams have brought around the 50-point mark but we expect more of a slog here. Check out the alternative total points markets at TopSport. We think it could even go under 40.
St George Illawarra Dragons v Brisbane Broncos prediction 3-6-2021
We have to lean towards the Dragons here simply because the Broncos have let us down too many times this season. They actually have a solid look to their pack again, but are light on for experience in the backs, aside from veteran winger David Mead. It will be no surprise to us if they upset the Dragons, which is why we have shied away from the head-to-head betting for this one, with the Dragons almost as flaky recently as the Brisbane team. Our Dragons v Broncos prediction: St George to win by 8 points.
Dragons v Broncos lowdown
Nine, Fox League and KAYO will telecast the game.
All of the top International betting sites will offer markets on the NRL.
The match kicks off at 7.50pm AEST
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