FIFA World Cup top goal-scorer tips
It’s just over a month until the FIFA World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico, and our staff football nuts have started scouring the betting markets to try to find some value for our followers.
Of course, given the trajectory of the United States under Donald Trump, at this stage we will just be glad if the tournament goes ahead, even if we have to put up with the aforementioned and his regime inserting themselves into what should be a joyous celebration of the world game.
MORE:
FIFA World Cup betting guide 2026
FIFA World Cup top goal-scorer 2026
Two of the most popular betting options with football betting sites for the football World Cup are of course on the winning team and also on which player will score the most goals. Here we have looked at the latter market, and found a few selections based on form and fitness and another hugely important factor in deciding who wins the Golden Boot.
There are several key factors that go into deciding which player scores the most goals over the course of the tournament and we have covered some of this in depth elsewhere. But one of those factors, which player takes the penalties for their team, may have even greater significance now there are more matches than ever: 104 matches played among 48 teams as opposed to 64 matches among 32 teams at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
We have looked at which players from near top of the goal-scoring betting markets will likely take the spot kicks for their team and which won’t. It’s a factor that could make all the difference over such a long tournament.
Primary penalty takers
- Kylian Mbappé (France): The undisputed first-choice. He has fully taken over this mantle following the international retirement of Olivier Giroud. Mbappé is at around the 7.00 quote with international betting sites, to top the goals, which is still nice value.
- Harry Kane (England): England’s captain and one of the most reliable penalty takers in world football. If he’s on the pitch, he takes it.
- Lionel Messi (Argentina): The legend still handles the pressure for the Albiceleste. While players such as Lautaro Martínez or Julian Álvarez take them for their clubs, Messi is the man for Argentina.
- Erling Haaland (Norway): The freakishly talented Norwegian is the primary penalty taker. Given his hunt for scoring records, he rarely hands the ball to anyone else.
- Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal): Even in 2026, if Ronaldo is on the field, the penalty belongs to him. He recently converted one in the qualifiers to continue his record-breaking international goal tally.
- Romelu Lukaku (Belgium): He is the designated taker for the Red Devils and has one of the highest conversion rates in Europe.
Secondary or situational takers
- Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain): While Spain often rotates based on who is on the pitch, Oyarzabal is considered one of their best specialists. However, he often shares the duty with Alvaro Morata.
- Lautaro Martínez (Argentina): He is the back-up to Messi. He usually only takes penalties if Messi is substituted or if the game is already comfortably decided.
- Bukayo Saka (England): He is the primary taker for his club team Arsenal, but for England, he is the second choice behind Kane.
- Vinícius Jr. (Brazil): With Neymar frequently out of the squad in early 2026 due to fitness, Vinícius Jr has stepped up as a primary candidate, though he often shares the responsibility with Rodrygo or Raphinha.
Unlikely penalty takers
- Lamine Yamal, Estêvão, and Nick Woltemade: These young stars are generally further down the pecking order behind more veteran strikers and established captains.
- Ousmane Dembélé: Despite his talent, he is rarely the first choice for penalties at either the club or international level, sitting behind Mbappé for France.
WGL tips for top goal-scorer at Fifa World Cup 2026
Best bet: Erling Haaland (Norway)
The striker is considered Norway’s greatest player already, at just 25 years old. Frankly the guy is just a goal-scoring machine and the $15 on offer is hugely appealing given Norway could well better their best World Cup finish of making the round of 16 twice, in 1938 and 1998.
Second best: Kylian Mbappe (France)
This superstar is at the peak of his powers and it will surprise no one if he repeats the dose fom 2022 and wins the Golden Ball again in 2026. The $8 available is reasonable too. He scored eight goals last time and will likely need more than that this time.
Best roughie: Romelu Lukaku (Belgium):
Loves scoring for his country and his record suggests that if the Belgians get on a roll it will be on the back of this guy knocking in goals. He’s great value at around $41 to win the Golden Boot.
