Geelong v Collingwood betting tips and prediction
Welcome to our Geelong v Collingwood betting tips and prediction for their AFL round 9 clash at the MCG on Saturday night.
The Cats (1.50) are the bookies’ elect for this clash between two Victorian giants, with the Magpies (1.60) outsiders. The Cats v Magpies line has been set at 12.5 points, while the over/under points mark is at 177.5.
Geelong is fresh off their best half in sometime after they produced a second-half demolition on a young North Melbourne team at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday.
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The sixth-placed Cats have swung just one change with ruckman Rhys Stanley replacing Mitch Edwards, no doubt with an eye on combatting Collingwood’s dual ruck setup with Oscar Steene and Darcy Cameron.
Collingwood has won four from eight and last played out an epic draw against premiership fancy Hawthorn, with the win snatched out of the Pies hands by an after-the-siren goal to Dylan Moore.
The Magpies have included Scott Pendlebury for his 432nd match, which will equal the all-time games mark, set by North Melbourne’s Brent Harvey.
The Pies will also be boosted by the inclusion of veteran defender Jeremy Howe, and speedster Beau McReery, who has developed into an important cog for the Pies.
Surprisingly, the Magpies have dropped young live-wire Will Hayes after he kicked goals in successive matches, with Harry Perryman (hamstring) and Wil Parker (omitted) also out of the line-up.
Geelong v Collingwood betting tips
Our AFL betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Geelong v Collingwood betting tips:
Dan McStay 2+ goals
The former Lion has been great in the last fortnight, and looms as a danger-man for the Cats, given the absence of Mark Blicavs. McStay is likely to have Connor O’Sullivan as his match-up, and should be able to use his strength in the one on ones. Keep a close eye on the Pies this week, with Howe coming back into the line-up, will we see a position change for Darcy Moore, with the Pies potentially sending him forward.
Bailey Smith 30+ possessions
The Cats ace just keeps on getting the ball with his gut running the feature of his game. The Pies are unlikely to tag him, and 30 looks a mere formality, barring injury. He should be around the 1.60 quote with AFL bookmakers.
Nick Daicos betting tips
Daicos was allegedly nullified by Oisin Mullin last time Collingwood played Geelong, but still finished with 28 touches and a goal. Daicos after a nine day break will be in much better shape than last week, and we’ll back him in to match Smith’s 30. He’s also ballooned out to 1.90 to gather 30 possessions, odds we will not be passing up.
Shannon Neale 2+ goals
Cats superstar Jeremy Cameron has looked like he’s carrying an injury in recent weeks, despite still performing strongly. We’ll look to his running mate Shanon Neale, who will attempt to expose Darcy Moore or Jeremy Howe in the one-on-ones when they come. He’s also offering nice value at 1.53 to kick 2+ goals. Keep your goals betting narrow, given the expected inclement weather and the Magpies miserly defence
Take the unders (total match points)
Keep a close eye on the weather on Saturday, there is rain about and if that’s the case, expect a low-scoring slog on the G. The over/under mark is currently at 177.5 with Neds Australia.
Geelong v Collingwood prediction
These two arch rivals have played out some classics over the years, and this promises to be a quality match-up. The Cats forward line is the key to their chances here, and if they can crack the Pies backline they will win. For Collingwood, this looks like another clash they will attempt to grind out win in a low-scoring match, where they counterpunch from their defensive half. With it being the first of Pendlebury’s milestone matches, it adds another variable to an already close contest. Stick to the player markets in this one. Our final Geelong v Collingwood prediction? Cats by one point.
