Hawthorn v Adelaide betting tips and prediction
Welcome to our Hawthorn v Adelaide betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL round 11 clash at the University of Tasmania on Thursday night.
The Hawks (1.42) are heavy favourites to defeat the Crows (2.85) in what looms as one of the Melbourne club’s final matches in Launceston, following the AFL’s decision to cancel their Apple Isle deal ahead of Tasmania’s entry into the competition in 2028.
But this clash looms as a tricky one with the Hawks form wavering and the Crows trending up after three successive wins, including a last up thrashing of much-improved North Melbourne.
MORE: AFL betting previews
Australian betting sites have set the Hawks v Crows line at 15.5 points, while the total match points is at 165.5, and clearly been given a haircut given the night fixture at this venue.
The Hawks are boosted by the inclusion of Conor Nash, Mabior Chol and Bailey Macdonald, with the first two sorely missed in the loss against Melbourne. The Hawks have also confirmed youngster Cameron Nairn will make his debut, after impressing forward and on a wing at VFL level.
The Crows are unlikely to swing wholesale changes although talented wingman Isaac Cumming hurt his hamstring and will miss, while Riley Thilthorpe and Callum Ah Chee have been called up. Taylor Walker will resume in the SANFL from his hamstring injury, while Luke Pedlar has been dropped.
The Crows opted to leave veteran Walker out, with the smaller forward setup worked well against North Melbourne. Brisbane Lions premiership player Callum Ah Chee will play his first game for the club after playing in the SANFL last round after overcoming a hamstring injury.
Hawthorn v Adelaide betting tips
WGL’s AFL betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value Hawthorn v Adelaide tips:
Is Gunston key to the Hawks?
The Hawks forward line without Gunston was exposed against the Demons, he just straightens them up at the right moments with his well-time leads. He won’t return against his former club on Thursday night, which will again put the pressure on young gun Nick Watson, although the Hawks have confirmed Chol will return which will give them a different look, either way. It’s going to be tough conditions on Thursday night, so keep your goal-kickers narrow. Three match-winning goals to Watson at around 2.20 would not surprise.
Adelaide +15.5 points
The Crows have began to look more like the minor premier of last season in the last fortnight, and we’re willing to back them in with a +15.5 point head start. With the tough conditions we can see this being an absolute slog, with a goal separating the teams at the end. We like this option at 1.90 with NextBet.
Possessions betting tips
Tasmanian conditions suit the Hawks bull and we’re willing to roll with him for 25+ here. Pending selection, Conor Nash looms as a solid possessions selection. Dylan Moore has ran into some nice form in recent weeks, but might be relegated in the pecking order if Nash returns. So include for 20+ at most.
The Crows midfield has looked much better with Izac Rankine in there in recent weeks. Expect the Hawks to tag him and for this reason we’ll leave him out. From the Crows, mature bodies like Jordan Dawson and Rory Laird will have a big say in the midfield and can be included in your multis. Rachele is again likely to play forward most of the night, but if the Crows are down he could be swung into the midfield.
Hawthorn v Adelaide prediction
The Hawks have an impervious record in Tasmania and they will be hoping the fortress can hold up one more time. But they face a team that is beginning to hit their straps and has the firepower to trouble a Hawks’ backline desperately missing Tom Barrass, especially with Riley Thilthorpe back. It might just come down to who produces more magic, the Wizard or Rankine. Our final Hawks v Crows prediction? Hawks by five points.
