Manchester City live up to pre-match predictions with FA Cup final victory

William Demamp
May 16, 2026
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Manchester City beat Chelsea in FA Cup final

Manchester City have lived up to expectations and won the FA Cup, defeating Chelsea 1-0 at Wembley on Saturday after Antoine Semenyo produced a moment of brilliance to decide the final.

Pre-match betting markets had strongly favoured Pep Guardiola’s side, with betting sites pricing City at 1.70 to win the match outright, implying a 59% probability of victory. Chelsea entered the final as outsiders at 4.70, while punters backing City on a -0.75 Asian Handicap at 1.89 were also rewarded after the narrow win.

Despite expectations of goals, with Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams To Score heavily backed before kick-off, the final turned into a tense and often scrappy contest settled by one piece of quality.

That moment arrived in the 72nd minute when Erling Haaland burst down the right flank and cut the ball back into the area. Semenyo, City’s January signing from Bournemouth, improvised superbly with an audacious back-heel flick that curled beyond Robert Sanchez and into the far corner.

The strike instantly entered the conversation alongside some of the most iconic goals in FA Cup final history and secured Manchester City’s eighth FA Cup crown.

It also delivered Pep Guardiola his 20th trophy as City manager during a glittering decade at the club, while ending a run of two successive FA Cup final defeats.

“I had a feeling last season against Palace and two seasons before against United that we were better than today, but in these type of games the margins were so minor,” he said.

“The decisions always make the difference and now I’m sitting here as the winner. Otherwise it would be Calum [McFarlane].

“This trophy is really cool, really special for its tradition and after the two defeats, back to Manchester with it is nice.”

City controlled possession for much of the afternoon but struggled to break down a defensive Chelsea side that sat deep in a five-man backline. Haaland came closest in the first half with a powerful strike saved by Sanchez, while Chelsea thought they should have received a penalty before half-time after Joao Pedro went down under pressure from Abdukodir Khusanov.

Chelsea, now without a win in seven league matches, produced a disciplined but ultimately blunt display in another disappointing chapter of a turbulent season. Supporters again voiced frustration toward the BlueCo ownership group before kick-off, chanting “we want our Chelsea back” outside Wembley.

For Guardiola, attention now shifts back to the Premier League title race, where City remain outsiders behind Arsenal with only two league matches remaining.

Guardiola said celebrations would be kept to a minimum until City completes the season, with matches against Bournemouth and Aston Villa.

Author William Demamp

Born in Ontario, Canada, William is one of the founders of the World Gambling List and an experienced professional punter. Specialising in sports betting, William has a special spot in his heart for NFL, ice hockey and football.

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