Melbourne v Richmond betting tips, prediction and odds; AFL rd 6 preview
Welcome to our Melbourne v Richmond betting tips, predictions and odds analysis for their blockbuster AFL round 6 clash at the MCG on Saturday night.
The Demons have had a dream start to 2021 and remain undefeated after five matches, but face their sternest test yet when they clash with modern juggernaut Richmond.
Melbourne is coming off an impressive 50-point demolition of Hawthorn on Sunday, when they put the foot down in the second half to ease away from the developing Hawks.
Richmond belted a lacklustre St Kilda by 86 points last Thursday, giving them an extra three days break than the Demons, which may be why TopSport is favouring the reigning premiers.
The Tigers are priced $1.71 to win this clash, with the Demons paying $2.15. The 6.5-point line has been priced at $2 by online bookmakers.
Melbourne has been boosted by star defender Stephen May, who returns from an eye injury, and talented forward Bayley Fritsch. Harrison Petty, Mitch Brown and Tom Sparrow are the three to be dropped.
Interestingly the Demons opted not to include young forward Sam Weideman, who is an emergency, or former North Melbourne star Ben Brown. Both played well in their comebacks from injuries in the VFL last round.
Richmond has not made any change to the team that thrashed St Kilda, with several stars, including Dion Prestia and Nick Vlastuin, sidelined.
Continue reading for our free Melbourne Demons v Richmond Tigers tips and winner prediction for their AFL round 6 clash being played on April 24, 2021.
|Start:||7.25pm AEST, April 24|
|Head-to-head odds:||Melbourne ($2.15) v Richmond ($1.71)|
|Line betting:||Melbourne +6.5 points ($1.90) v Richmond -6.5 ($1.90)|
|Premiership odds:||Melbourne $10; Richmond $5.50|
Demons v Tigers tips
WGL’s AFL betting expert has found some value Demons v Tigers tips:
Over/under betting – take the unders
At the time of writing our Demons v Tigers tips the over/under total match points market was set at 157.5, which looks a touch high, given there is a bit of wet weather about in Melbourne predicted for Saturday. We’re happy to take the unders at $1.88 with TopSport.
Dustin Martin to have 25+ possessions
When the Tigers are on the big stage, you can almost guarantee their talisman Dustin Martin will be on song. What looms as the burning questions is whether Melbourne gun Christian Petracca and Martin go head-to-head. We suspect they won’t and the Tigers will put a bit of time into the Demons star, which is why we’ll back Dusty in. Martin is paying $1.57 to top 25 possessions.
Richmond 1-24 in margin betting
We expect this to be a fierce battle and we can’t see the margin blowing out, with these teams favoured to be in contention at the pointy end of the season. The Tigers are offering some good value to win by 1-24 points in margin betting at TopSport, with this paying $3.10.
Melbourne v Richmond prediction 24/4/2021
Melbourne has improved markedly this season, with its fitness and development outstanding after a frustrating Covid-19-impacted time last year. But the Tigers looked to be finding some serious form last round and their key forwards Tom Lynch and Jack Reiwoldt just have more nous than young Luke Jackson and Tom McDonald. How Demons coach Simon Goodwin would have loved to have pulled the trigger and played one of the more noted Brown or Weidemann. But we suspect he likes the idea of keeping a gun in the holster against the Tigers early in the season. Our final Melbourne v Richmond prediction? Tigers by 11 points.
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