Richmond v Hawthorn tips, predictions and odds update; AFL rd 3 betting preview
Defending premiers Richmond and long-time power club Hawthorn kick off round 3 of AFL action at the MCG on Thursday night.
Both teams were a little rusty coming back after the hiatus caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, though Richmond escaped with a draw in their match against fellow premiership fancies Collingwood.
The Tigers have suffered a big blow with talisman Dustin Martin being ruled out of this match late with a rib injury.
The Hawks were downright poor in their thrashing by Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, though that may well be a fate that befalls many teams heading down to face the Cats on their home turf.
Our AFL pundits have examined the odds and present free Richmond v Hawthorn tips for their round 3 clash.
Hawthorn are set to regain star midfielder Jaeger O’Meara as he has recovered from a facial fracture though he will likely be wearing some sort of extra protection.
O’Meara’s return can’t come soon enough; it was clear for all to see last week in the thrashing by Geelong that the Hawthorn midfield was outworked and outclassed. Coach Alastair Clarkson described them as fourth-rate.
Richmond clearly had trouble up forward last week in the 36-36 draw against Collingwood, though big man Tom Lynch still proved a handful for the Pies’ defence.
Experienced utility Josh Caddy is racing the clock to be fit after a calf complaint ruled him out last week. He could provide a big body in midfield and drifting forward against the Hawks and help to cover the loss of Martin.
Richmond have won their past three encounters against Hawthorn by an average of 26.67 points, while Caddy and Lynch kicked three goals each in their most recent win by 36 points. Interesting in that match in round 9 last year the Tigers had only two more forward 50 entries yet won comfortably.
Below we have examined the odds ahead of the AFL round 3 clash and given you our Tigers v Hawks tips and winner prediction.
Tigers v Hawks odds
|Start:||7:40PM Local Time, June 18|
|Head-to-head odds:||Richmond ($1.38) v Hawthorn ($3.05)|
|Line betting:||Richmond -16.5 ($1.90) v Hawthorn +16.5 ($1.90)|
|Premiership odds:||Richmond $4.50; Hawthorn $26|
Tigers v Hawks betting tips
Our AFL betting expert has scoured the odds and found some value. Here are our Richmond v Hawthorn tips:
Richmond to win by 39 points or less at $1.90
While we expect a sharp reaction from the Hawks to their disappointment in Geelong, the Tigers rarely lose at the MCG and will be themselves extra motivated after sharing the points with Collingwood. We expect them to win but not by a blowout margin.
Jason Castagna two or more goals
The Richmond goal sneak was unsighted against the Pies but has a habit of bobbing up an rarely misses out two weeks in a row. Of course we want to see him kicking his goals on the run; watching him line up from 30 metres out straight in front can be a stressful experience!
Richmond Tigers v Hawthorn Hawks prediction
These are two teams that are on different paths this season. The Tigers are finals-bound, though teams may this season work out a way to combat their frantic style of play. It’s a style that works well under the pressure of a big final, but may not be so effective in the stark, sterile, crowd-less environment they face for much of this season. Hawthorn look in for a long year of mediocrity, but their coach Clarkson is a master and will have them humming at some stage. This week? The Tigers by 15 points.
Tigers v Hawks lowdown
Free to air: Seven Mate. Subscription TV: Foxtel; streaming/IPTV: Kayo; mobile: AFL Live Pass.
All of the best betting sites will offer markets on the AFL.
The game starts at 7:40pm local time on June 18.
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