St Kilda v Geelong tips, prediction & odds; AFL round 9 preview
Welcome to our St Kilda v Geelong tips, prediction and odds analysis ahead of their AFL round 9 clash at Marvel Stadium on Friday night.
The Saints are fresh off a nine-point win over Gold Coast on the road after overrunning the Queensland team in the second half, in a gritty display last Saturday.
Geelong recorded their best win for the season on Friday night when they eclipsed reigning champion Richmond by 63 points, with recruit Jeremy Cameron showing just why he was the biggest name to change clubs over the off-season.
As expected, the Cats have been marked a short-priced favourite to win this game, with leading bookmaker TopSport having them at $1.38. St Kilda are outsiders at $3.09 (with AU betting sites) which looks about right given their mixed form and injuries.
St Kilda will resist the temptation of bringing Jarryn Geary back from a serious ankle injury, with the skipper set to play in the VFL. Jake Carlisle (back) and Dean Kent (concussion) are also in the selection frame for the Saints.
Geelong’s Sam Simpson has suffered a hamstring injury and will be unavailable for selection, while defender Jake Kolodjashnij is touch and go to play against the Saints. The Cats are also confident Esava Ratugolea and Luke Dahlhaus will play against he Saints after appearing to be sore in their win over Richmond.
Continue reading for our free St Kilda v Geelong betting tips and winner prediction for their AFL round 9 clash at Marvel Stadium on Friday night.
| Start: | 7.50pm AEST, May 14 |
| Venue: | Marvel Stadium, Melbourne |
| Head-to-head odds: | St Kilda ($3.09) v Geelong ($1.38) |
| Line betting: | St Kilda +16.5 points ($1.90) v Geelong -16.5 ($1.90) |
| Premiership odds: | Geelong $6.50; St Kilda $31 |
St Kilda v Geelong betting tips
Our AFL betting guru has read the form and found some free St Kilda v Geelong betting tips:
Jeremy Cameron to kick 3+ goals
The former Giants forward is starting to hit his straps after an injury interrupted start to the season. We’ve cashed in the last fortnight on his bags of goals and we’ll happily load up again this week. His ability to work in tandem with Tom Hawkins has been first-rate and he was a big reason they thrashed Richmond last round. Cameron is paying $1.80 to kick 3+ goals.
Rowan Marshall to kick 2+ goals
St Kilda’s promising young ruckman Rowan Marshall has quickly improved the Saints since returning from his ankle injury and his effectiveness has gone to another level since Paddy Ryder returned. Marshall is the ideal foil for Max King, with it likely Lachie Henderson will get the job. We think this is a match-up Marshall will enjoy and he is paying $2.20 to kick 2+ goals.
Possessions betting tips
The usual suspects are likely to get a lot of ball for Geelong, with Tom Stewart and Cam Guthrie seemingly locks each week to gather over 25 touches. You can almost extend this pair to 30+, but we like to be conservative with these types of bets.
St Kilda midfield mainstay Seb Ross is always in the mix for 25+ touches, while recruit Brad Crouch is becoming more reliable with his output, after a slow start to his Saints career. Lock him in for 25+ against Geelong, which often allow opposition midfielders to wrack up big possession counts.
St Kilda v Geelong prediction 14/5
Geelong have been far below their best in 2021, although they did produce their best performance of the season, against an undermanned and outplayed Richmond. They were missing their own superstar, Brownlow winner Patrick Dangerfield, so Cats fans should rightly feel that they are in premiership contention. While we think the odds are a bit too heavily in the Cats’ favour, on a deck much more familiar to the Saints (remember Geelong lost to Sydney two weeks ago), we just can’t mount a serious case for an upset in this one. If the Cats are at 90% capacity they should win what promises to be a cracking game. Our final St Kilda v Geelong prediction? Cats by 13 points.
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