State of Origin Game 1: NSW v Queensland
The 2026 State of Origin series is here and the biggest question is if will it follow a similar pattern to so many Origin series of the past.
That is: NSW start red-hot favourites with a team that looks too strong on paper. Queensland claim underdog status despite their dominant overall record in the competition. The Maroons and their unheralded group of players step up under the blowtorch, with players who have struggled even at club level suddenly playing like Immortals. Queensland win the series and then the Sydney-based media melts down and starts the analysis of why the same thing happens nearly every season.
Well, the first step is in place, with the Blues hot favourites with the bookies at $1.55 to win the opening match in the best-of-three series in Sydney on Wednesday night.
And on paper they are deserved favourites at home, led by a dynamic halves combination of the world’s best player Nathan Cleary at halfback and Mitchell Moses at five-eighth, with veteran James Tedesco a controversial call as fullback ahead of the Panthers star Dylan Edwards. The Blues boast a fearsome back line of some of the most brutal runners in the game.
But if there is one thing we have learnt over many years watching Origin football, it is that it does not matter who pulls on the Queensland jersey. They will rise to the occasion, and you will go broke betting against them on simply the perceived strength of the teams.
Queensland lead the overall match tally 70-60, with two draws, and they hold a 27-17 series edge (two series were drawn but went to Queensland as the holders of the title from the previous series).
You would not know it looking at Australian betting sites though, with $2.50 available about them winning the opening game, and $2.25 about them winning the series.
NSW v Queensland team news
The biggest call for NSW coach Laurie Daley was selecting veteran Roosters star and former Blues captain Tedesco, 33, ahead of Edwards at fullback.
NSW have six potential debutants in the 19-man team as Daley looks to rebound from the disappointment of last season, when they lost the series after winning Game 1 in Queensland. Manly powerhouse Tolu Koula joins a back line packed with running power despite the absence of injured superstar Latrell Mitchell.
The Blues will miss man mountain Payne Haas with injury but have roped in another of the game’s best props in Tongan co-captain Addin Fonua-Blake for his Origin debut. Other newcomer include Victor Radley, Blayke Brailey, Ethan Strange and Casey McLean.
Souths star Cam Murray makes his Origin return on the pine and the Blues will welcome his non-stop defensive intensity.
The Maroons have Roosters halfback Sam Walker in for his Origin debut with Tom Dearden injured. Captain Cam Munster will team up with Walker in the halves despite sitting out some training in the lead-up with an unnamed injury/tightness.
Coach Billy Slater made the huge call to pick in-form Kalyn Ponga in the No.1 ahead of Broncos flyer Reece Walsh, who misses out on selection altogether. To be fair, Walsh has only just returned from a facial fracture and there is nowhere to hide in the Origin cauldron.
Try-scoring whiz Jojo Fifita makes his Queensland debut on the wing, with other debutants Max Plath at lock and Briton Nikora on the six-man interchange. Ezra Mam is the game-breaker sitting on the bench ready to come on and dazzle when the big men tire towards the end of each half.
Origin player of the series past 10 winners
| Year | Player | Team | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Tom Dearden | Queensland | Five-eighth |
| 2024 | Angus Crichton | New South Wales | Second-row |
| 2023 | Reuben Cotter | Queensland | Prop / Lock |
| 2022 | Patrick Carrigan | Queensland | Lock |
| 2021 | Tom Trbojevic | New South Wales | Centre |
| 2020 | Cameron Munster | Queensland | Five-eighth |
| 2019 | James Tedesco | New South Wales | Fullback |
| 2018 | Billy Slater | Queensland | Fullback |
| 2017 | Dane Gagai | Queensland | Winger |
| 2016 | Cameron Smith | Queensland | Hooker |
Read on for our NSW v Queensland tips and winner prediction for State of Origin Game 1
NSW v Queensland match information
- Kick-off: 8.05pm AEDT, Wednesday, May 27
- Venue: Accor Stadium, Sydney
- Head to head odds: NSW $1.55, Queensland $2.45
- Line betting: NSW (-5.5 points) $1.90, Queensland (+5.5 points) $1.90
- Match total: 42.5 points: over $1.90, under $1.90
2026 Wally Lewis Medal betting
$5.50 Nathan Cleary (NSW)
$9 James Tedesco (NSW)
$13 Kalyn Ponga (QLD)
$15 Harry Grant (QLD), Cameron Munster (QLD)
$17 Sam Walker (QLD), Mitchell Moses (NSW), Isaah Yeo (NSW)
$21 Hudson Young (NSW), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (QLD)
$26 Haumole Olakauatu (NSW), Patrick Carrigan (QLD)
$34 Max Plath (QLD), Brian Too (NSW), Cameron Murray (NSW), Tino Faasuamaleaui (QLD)
$41 Addin Fonua-Blake (NSW), Reuben Cotter (QLD), Mitchell Barnett (NSW), Stephen Crichton (NSW)
$51 Kotoni Staggs (NSW), Robert Toia (QLD)
$67 Reece Robson (NSW), Blayke Brailey (NSW)
$81 Thomas Flegler (QLD), Victor Radley (NSW), Selwyn Cobbo (QLD), Kurt Capewell (QLD), Tolutau Koula (NSW), Lindsay Collins (QLD)
$101+ Check prices for other players
NSW v Queensland betting tips
This promises to be every bit as brutal as Origins past, with both teams stacked with heavy hitters.
We were somewhat surprised to see the Blues name Victor Radley. ”Victor in Inflictor” stands alongside the absent Latrell Mitchell as the most sin-binned player in the NRL over the past decade and we worry when his blood is up his brutal tackling style will tend to the high side. As proven in many past Origins, having a player binned can be devastating for your chances when there is so little between the sides.
NSW have lost their past four series openers in Sydney, but we are going to take the risk and jump on the Blues train this time at home, largely hoping the halves combination of Cleary and Moses can dominate against the new Walker-Munster combination.
The weather is forecast to be wet and slippery, but Daley has expressly stated his desire for an attacking style of play so the over/under line of 42.5 seems reasonable in this new age of high-scoring, six-again football.
The NRL season is about to suffer the Origin interruption to their playing stocks but this fan for one can’t wait til kick-off on Wednesday night.
NSW by 8 points.
- NSW -4.5 points/Match total over 42.5 at $3.35 with Australian betting sites.
- Brian To’o to score a try at any time at $2.10. To’o needs only one try to become the outright top try-scorer for NSW.
State of Origin 2026 schedule
- Game I: Wednesday, May 27: New South Wales v Queensland, Accor Stadium, Sydney | 8.05pm
- Game II: Wednesday, June 17: New South Wales v Queensland, MCG, Melbourne | 8.10pm
- Game III: Wednesday, July 8: Queensland v New South Wales, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane | 8.10pm
NRL round 13, 2026
- Friday, May 29: Sharks v Sea Eagles, Ocean Protect Stadium, Sydney | 8pm
- Saturday, May 30: Knights v Eels, McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle | 3pm
Wests Tigers v Bulldogs, CommBank Stadium, Sydney | 5.30pm
Storm v Roosters, AAMI Park, Melbourne | 7.35pm - Sunday, May 31: Broncos v Dragons, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane | 2pm
Raiders v Cowboys, GIO Stadium, Canberra | 4.05pm
Panthers v Warriors, CommBank Stadium, Sydney | 6.15pm
* Dolphins, Rabbitohs, Titans have the bye
