State of Origin Game 3: Queensland v NSW 2020: betting tips, prediction & odds

NRL round 13: Dragons v Broncos

Welcome to our Queensland v NSW preview, predictions and odds update for the third State of Origin match at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday, November 18.

The Maroons have a 64 per cent winning record at Suncorp Stadium, which was formerly known as Lang Park and a graveyard for visiting Blues teams.

Brad Fittler’s NSW side heads into this deciding Origin match as red-hot favourites on the back of their clinical dismantling of the Maroons last Wednesday night in Sydney, which levelled the series at 1-1.

But once Origin arrives at Lang Park, all bets are off as far as normal outcomes are concerned. The Maroons always reserve a special passion for Origin and it will be on full display with an almost 100 per cent capacity allowed for a major sporting event for the first time this year.

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Of course, it’s been a very different and low-key Origin series this year because of the Covid-19 pandemic, with the matches played on three consecutive Wednesdays as oppose to scattered through the NRL season itself.

NSW are aiming for a third consecutive series win, which is a rarity for the Blues in a series long dominated by Queensland.

NSW face an added difficulty to seal the series given they have to fly in on game day and head straight to the ground, under the Qld government’s strict biosecurity measures.

2020 State of Origin Game 3 teams

Queensland’s master coach Wayne Bennett has swung late changes for Origin 3, with Souths star Corey Allan making his debut at fullback, with Valentine Holmes switched to the wing to cover for late withdrawal Xavier Coates (groin). Another debutant in towering Edrick Lee comes in on the wing for Phillip Sami, who had a disastrous game two.

Game one hero Kurt Capewell has been switched from centre to second row, with debutant Brenko Lee coming into the centre position.

Prop Christian Welch (concussion) missed game two but returns in Brisbane, forcing out Dunamis Lui, while boom Storm hooker Harry Grant starts on the bench for his Origin debut. Jaydn Su’A will switch to the bench with Capewell’s move to the pack. Veteran playmaker Ben Hunt and Moeaki Fotuaika drop off the bench.

Five-eighth Cameron Munster (concussion) has been declared a certain starter.

NSW coach Brad Fittler has name the same 17 who were so impressive in Sydney, with a slight watch on flying winger Josh Addo-Carr (bruised toe). Storm star Ryan Papenhuyzen (calf) is fit again and named in the reserves and would be the likely replacement.

Queensland: 5. Corey Allan, 1. Valentine Holmes, 4. Dane Gagai, 21. Brenko Lee, 19. Edrick Lee, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c), 8. Christian Welch, 9. Jake Friend, 10. Josh Papalii, 3. Kurt Capewell, 11. Felise Kaufusi, 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui. Interchange: 12. Jaydn Su’A, 14. Harry Grant, 15. Lindsay Collins, 16. Jai Arrow.

NSW: 1. James Tedesco (c), 2. Daniel Tupou, 3. Clint Gutherson, 4. Jack Wighton, 5. Josh Addo-Carr, 6. Cody Walker, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Daniel Saifiti, 9. Damien Cook, 10. Payne Haas, 11. Angus Crichton, 12. Tyson Frizell, 13. Jake Trbojevic. Interchange: 14. Dale Finucane, 15. Junior Paulo, 16. Nathan Brown, 17. Isaah Yeo.

Read on for our Blues v Maroons tips and winner prediction for their State of Origin clash on Wednesday, November 18.

State of Origin 2020 results, schedule

Game 1: Wednesday, November 4: Queensland 18 (A.J. Brimson, Xavier Coates, Cameron Munster; Daly Cherry-Evans 3 conversions) d NSW 14 (Damien Cook, Josh Addo-Carr 2 tries; Nathan Cleary 1 conversion) at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide.
Game 2: Wednesday, November 11: NSW 34 (Josh Addo-Carr 2, Cody Walker, James Tedesco, Jack Wighton, Daniel Tupou tries; Nathan Cleay 4 cons, pen) d Queensland 10 (Xavier Coates, Josh Papalii tries; Valentine Holmes con) at ANZ Stadium, Sydney.
Game 3: Wednesday, November 18, 8.10pm (AEDT), Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Qld v NSW odds

Kick-off: 8.10pm AEDT
Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Head to head odds: Queensland $2.88, NSW $1.42
Line betting: Queensland (+6.5 points) $1.90, NSW (-6.5 points) $1.90
Match total: 41.5 points: over $1.86, under $1.94

Queensland v NSW free betting tips

Below our NRL betting expert has highlighted his free Maroons-Blues betting tips for Wednesday night’s game.

Queensland +6.5 points/match total under 41.5

We like the changes Bennett has made, with the switch of Capewell to the pack really giving the side a lot more mobility, which should be helpful on a warm, clear day in Brisbane. They are also stiffened up by the return to Christian Welch, who was outstanding in game one.

Man of the match betting

We have tried this option without success but will stick to it for the final match as taking a couple of players with small bets really is a good option for those not tied up with the outcome. Nathan Cleary was simply brilliant in game two, but this time we will go with superstar skipper James Tedesco ($5.50) for the Blues, while if Queensland are to triumph you can be sure Cameron Munster ($10) will be in the thick of the action.

Queensland Maroons v NSW Blues prediction 18-11-2020

This match will be worth watching just for the return bout between tyro forwards Payne Haas and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, who clashed in game two and were both yellow-carded. On paper NSW look a little too classy but you have to factor in the home advantage this time for the Maroons. And they will have a rabid fan base, with little Blues presence at the ground presenting a hostile atmosphere. In the end though we think the Blues will scrape over the line, with a controversy of a ref’s call to boot. The controversies are never far away in these games but no doubt this one will be a bone-crunching encounter. Our State of Origin Game 3 prediction: NSW by two points.

NSW v Qld lowdown

How can I watch State of Origin III?

Channel Nine will telecast the game.

How can I bet on the NSW-Qld Origin?

All of the top International betting sites will offer markets on the Origin series.

What time does Wednesday’s Origin opener start?

The Blues-Maroons match will kick off at 8.10pm AEDT.

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