The Open 2026: Betting preview and free tips
The final major of the year, The Open, at Royal Birkdale in England tees off on Thursday, with a field of 156 players and as always with this tournament, at least 100 of them have a chance.
Royal Birkdale hosts The Open for an 11th time, and the iconic links course seems likely to provide another stern examination of the world’s best, given the expected warm and windy conditions.
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The Open has a habit of throwing up an unexpected winner (see table below) yet at this difficult course it has often been superstars who have risen to the top. At the most recent Open there in 2017, the then dominant Jordan Spieth won he Claret Jug.
This week the two clear best players in the world, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, are expected to be busy late on Sunday, even after Scheffler missed the cut at last weekend’s Scottish Open. That was the first time since 2022 that he failed to make the cut at a PGA Tour event. He had made a remarkable 78 consecutive cuts.
Many pundits think this tournament at this course is made for a popular local win, with the likes of Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose, Matt Fitzpatrick and Tyrrell Hatton certain to come in for strong and rowdy support. They are all among the first 20 or so players in the markets with betting sites.
Read on for our summary of the chances of the leading players in betting markets for this event.
Who is hot heading to Royal Birkdale?
Heading to Royal Birkdale, form lines are divided between players who dominated the coastal winds at the Genesis Scottish Open and major champions arriving with season-long momentum.
- Tom Kim | Nobody is hotter than the 24-year-old South Korean. He is fresh off a bogey-free final round of 64 to win the Genesis Scottish Open. It snapped his 1001-day winless drought and proved his game thrives in heavy seaside wind. He is already a runner-up at the Open in 2023, and his ball-striking is peaking.
- Wyndham Clark | He is playing the most consistent, high-ceiling golf in the world over the past two months. He recently captured his second US Open title, won the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, and hasn’t finished outside the top 11 in six consecutive starts. He was right in the thick of it again in Scotland last weekend.
- Matt Fitzpatrick & Min Woo Lee | Both players pushed Tom Kim to the brink in Scotland, finishing in a tie for third and solo second respectively. Fitzpatrick is a great course fit for Birkdale. He has three PGA Tour wins this season and is leading the tour in strokes gained around the green. Lee showed incredible flight control in the wind all week in Scotland.
- Rory McIlroy | McIlroy has played a limited schedule this season, but he makes it count every time he shows up. He shook off some links rust with a spectacular final-round 64 in Scotland to vault into a T7 finish. His driver is operating at a lethal level.
The Open details & betting
Dates, venue and tournament info
- Start: Thursday, July 16
- Venue: Royal Birkdale Golf Club, Southport, Merseyside, England
- Sport: Golf
- Favourite: Scottie Scheffler ($9.50)
- Last year: Scottie Scheffler
The Open outright winner odds
- Scottie Scheffler $9.50
- Rory McIlroy $9.75
- Matt Fitzpatrick $17
- Tommy Fleetwood $17
- Jon Rahm $26
- Xander Schauffele $31
- Ludvig Aberg $31
- Collin Morikawa $31
- Justin Rose $31
- Chris Gotterup $31
- Robert McIntyre $31
The Open leading contenders (according to bookies)
- Scottie Scheffler: The defending champion (2025 winner) enters as favourite to retain the Claret Jug despite a rare missed cut at the Scottish Open. His ball-striking remains generational. Best Finish: Winner (2025). Recent Form: Solid, though mixed with recent tournament gaps.
- Rory McIlroy: McIlroy is playing a highly selective schedule focusing exclusively on legacy. He’s in great touch, contending deeply at the recent Scottish Open. Best Finish: Winner (2014). Recent Form: Excellent, major-focused, peaking cleanly for links play.
- Matt Fitzpatrick: Heading into the week on the heels of a brilliant performance at the Genesis Scottish Open, his pinpoint driving and elite short game make him a major threat on tough set-ups. Best Finish: T20 (2019). Recent Form: Elite, trending sharply upward just in time for Royal Birkdale.
- Tommy Fleetwood: The local favorite remains a premier links player. He showed excellent signs at the Scottish Open and historically thrives in front of the passionate home crowds. Best Finish: 2nd (2019). Recent Form: Strong, steady ball-striking.
- Jon Rahm: Rahm has posted highly competitive numbers on his recent tour stops, including mid-tier finishes where his elite power keeps him in the mix. Links courses suit his low bullet flight perfectly. Best Finish: T2 (2023). Recent Form: Consistent, hovering near contention without a massive explosion.
- Xander Schauffele: The 2024 champion missed the weekend at the Scottish Open but his major consistency makes that an outlier. His clinical all-round game travels seamlessly across continents. Best Finish: Winner (2024). Recent Form: Flawless top-10 machine in majors.
- Ludvig Aberg: A shocking missed cut in Scotland halts a meteoric rise, but the young Swedish phenom possesses the generational driving accuracy required to dominate Royal Birkdale’s penal rough. Best Finish: Debutant/T16 (2024). Recent Form: Strikingly brilliant overall, despite an unexpected weekend off in July.
- Collin Morikawa: A master of precision iron play, he relies on control over distance, a massive asset on a penal links routing such as Birkdale. Best Finish: Winner (2021). Recent Form: Solid, quiet consistency with trademark accuracy from fairway to green.
- Justin Rose: A past runner-up who famously contended at Birkdale as an amateur, Rose continues to defy age with great major showings, including a T7 at the PGA Championship. Best Finish: T2 (2018, 2024). Recent Form: Impressive veteran resurgence, sharp in heavy wind conditions.
- Tyrrell Hatton: Hatton enters with high confidence after an excellent, deep run into the weekend at the Scottish Open. If he keeps his temper under control, his creative flighting makes him dangerous. Best Finish: T5 (2016). Recent Form: Hot, showing great comfort on native seaside turf.
The Open golf betting tips
Our golf betting expert has assessed the markets and found some value betting tips for the final major of the year:
Best bet: Robert McIntyre each-way at aroun $41
We’ve been with the Scottish left-hander in all the majors this year and he has let us down, but that is the essence of golf betting. Some times you just have to stick for an extended period and hope to strike. He has been in good form of late and has three top 10s in six Open Championship starts. Birkdale, and any links course for that matter, suits him down to the ground.
Best The Open roughie: Cameron Smith at $125 plus
Smith has not been the same player since joing LIV golf but he showed signs of life at the US PGA Championship with a top 10 finish. Who would ever forget his final round of 64 to win the title at the Old Course at St Andrew in 2022. Being back on a links course with the wind blowing should bring out his best. You can also secure tidy odds about him being the top Australasian finisher, though there are a few other likely contenders from that cohort this year.
Best value bet: Tommy Fleetwood top five at $5
Who doesn’t want to see the cool and calm Englishmen shine on home soil. We think he is well placed to contend and he will certainly be at home in the wind at Royal Birkdale.
The Open past 10 winners/runners-up
| Year | Champion (Score) | Runner(s)-Up (Score) |
| 2025 | Scottie Scheffler (267 / -17) | Harris English (271 / -13) |
| 2024 | Xander Schauffele (275 / -9) | Justin Rose (277 / -7) Billy Horschel (277 / -7) |
| 2023 | Brian Harman (271 / -13) | Jon Rahm (277 / -7) Jason Day (277 / -7) Tom Kim (277 / -7) Sepp Straka (277 / -7) |
| 2022 | Cameron Smith (268 / -20) | Cameron Young (269 / -19) |
| 2021 | Collin Morikawa (265 / -15) | Jordan Spieth (267 / -13) |
| 2019 | Shane Lowry (269 / -15) | Tommy Fleetwood (275 / -9) |
| 2018 | Francesco Molinari (276 / -8) | Justin Rose (278 / -6) Rory McIlroy (278 / -6) Kevin Kisner (278 / -6) Xander Schauffele (278 / -6) |
| 2017 | Jordan Spieth (268 / -12) | Matt Kuchar (271 / -9) |
| 2016 | Henrik Stenson (264 / -20) | Phil Mickelson (267 / -17) |
| 2015 | Zach Johnson (273 / -15)* | Marc Leishman (273 / -15) Louis Oosthuizen (273 / -15) |
- * Zach Johnson won the 2015 tournament in a four-hole aggregate playoff over Leishman and Oosthuizen.
