Wales v South Africa betting tips, odds, predictions – RWC 2019 semi-final 2
Welcome to our free predictions and odds update for match 46 of the Rugby World Cup: the semi-final between Wales and South Africa at International Stadium Yokohama on Sunday, October 27.
The winners will advance to the Rugby World Final to play the winners of the first semi-final between England and New Zealand.
Wales were for so long bunnies for the Springboks. They played their first Test in 1906 but Wales did not win one against South Africa until 1999! Mind you they had played only 12 matches before that.
But that sparked the South Africans into another period of dominance and they won 16 Tests in a row.
But to paraphrase tennis great Vitas Gerulaitis, nobody beats Wales 17 times in a row! And they finally broke the losing streak in Cardiff in 2014.
Wales lost the next Test against the Boks (23-19 in World Cup Rugby match in England in 2015) but have won the past four Tests between the teams to make it five wins in their past six Tests.
Bookies have made the South Africans short-priced favourites for this semi-final and so they should be after shutting out Japan with a brilliant defensive display. Meanwhile, Wales fell over the line against heroic France, who had a player red-carded but held on incredibly well. Only a controversial late try got the Welsh over the line.
The Springboks have been dealt a blow before the semi-final with winger Cheslin Kolbe, one of the stars of the tournament so far, ruled out of the match with an ankle injury.
“It is a big blow, everybody knows the quality of his play and the contribution he’s made,” Springboks coach Rassie Erasmus said. “But if you look at his last game, his ankle definitely affected his performance and we just feel a fully fit Sbu [Nkosi] would be a better option than a 70 per cent Cheslin.”
Check out our team previews to get the latest form, our tips for leading try-scorer from each team and where we think they will finish in the tournament.
Here are our Wales v South Africa semi-final predictions and odds for their clash at the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan.
Rugby World Cup Match 46: semi-final 2 – Wales v South Africa
Kick-off: 6pm local time (GMT +9)
Venue: International Stadium Yokohama
Wales v South Africa odds
Head to head odds: Wales $3.60, South Africa $1.28
Handicap line odds: Wales (+8.5 points) $1.91, South Africa (-8.5 points) $1.91
Wales v South Africa – past 10 meetings
September 11, 2011: South Africa 17 d Wales 16, Wellington Regional Stadium, Wellington
November 9, 2013: South Africa 24 d Wales 15, Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
June 14, 2014: South Africa 38 d Wales 16, Kings Park, Durban
June 21, 2014: South Africa 31 d Wales 30, Mbombela Stadium, Nelspruit
November 29, 2014: Wales 12 d South Africa 6, Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
October 17, 2015: South Africa 23 d Wales 19, Twickenham Stadium, London
November 26, 2016: Wales 27 d South Africa 13, Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
December 2, 2017: Wales 24 d South Africa 22, Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
June 2, 2018: Wales 22 d South Africa 20, RFK Stadium, Washington, D.C., US
November 24, 2018: Wales 20 d South Africa 11, Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Previous World Cup 2019 matches:
Wales 43 (Jonathan Davies, Justin Tipuric, Josh Adams, Liam Williams, Tomos Williams, George North tries; Dan Biggar 4 cons, 1 pen, Leigh Halfpenny con) d Georgia 14 (Shalva Mamukashvili, Levan Chilachava; Tedo Abzhandadze 2 cons). Referee: Luke Pearce.
Wales 29 (Gareth Davies, Hadleigh Parkes tries; Daniel Biggar, Rhys Patchell cons, Patchell 3 pens, Biggar, Patchell drop goals) d Australia 25 (Adam Ashley-Cooper, Dane Haylett-Petty, Michael Hooper tries; Matt To’omua 2 cons, Bernard Foley, To’omua pens). Referee: Romain Poite.
Wales 29 (Josh Adams 3, Liam Williams tries; Daniel Biggar 2, Rhys Patchell cons, Patchell pen) d Fiji 17 (1 penalty try, Kini Murimurivalu, Josua Tuisova tries). Referee: Jerome Garces.
Wales 35 (1 penalty try; Josh Adams, Gareth Davies, Nicky Smith, Tomos Williams tries; Leigh Halfpenny 4 cons) d Uruguay 13 (German Kessler try; Felipe Berchesi con, 2 pens). Referee: Angus Gardner.
QF: Wales 20 (Ross Moriarty, Aaron Wainwright tries; Daniel Biggar 2 cons, 2 pens) d France 19 (Charles Ollivon, Sebastien Vahaamahina, Virimi Vakatawa tries; Romain Ntamack 2 cons). Referee: Jaco Peyper.
New Zealand 23 (Scott Barrett, George Bridge tries; Richie Mo’unga 2 cons, Mo’unga 2, Beauden Barrett pens) d South Africa 13 (Pieter-Steph du Toit try; Handre Pollard con, pen, drop goal). Referee: Jerome Garces.
South Africa 57 (Mbongeni Mbonambi 2, Makazole Mapimpi 2, Francois Louw, Lukhanyo Am, Warrick Gelant, Siya Kolisi, Schalk Brits; Elton Jantjies 6 cons) d Namibia 3 (Cliven Loubser pen). Referee: Mathieu Raynal.
South Africa 49 (Cheslin Kolbe 2, Lukhanyo Am, Makazole Mapimpi, Malcolm Marx, Bongi Mbonambi, RG Snyman tries; Handre Pollard 4 cons, 2 pens) d Italy 3 (Tommaso Allan pen). Referee: Wayne Barnes.
South Africa 66 (Cobus Reinach 3, Schalk Brits, Damian de Allende, Warrick Gelant, Frans Malherbe, S’busiso Nkosi, Francois Steyn, Damian Willemse tries; Elton Jantjies 8 cons) d Canada 7 (Matt Heaton try; Peter Nelson con). Referee: Luke Pearce.
QF: South Africa 26 (Makazole Mapimpi 2, Faf de Klerk tries; Handre Pollard con, 3 pens) d Japan 3 (Yu Tamura pen). Referee: Wayne Barnes.
Wales v South Africa tips RWC2019
Wales +8.5 points at $1.91
While we have not been too impressed by Wales’ latest form, they have been ranked No.1 in the world recently for good reason. We expect a tight game with scores at a premium and one thing you know with the Welsh is they have a deadly goalkicker in Dan Biggar and are happy to rack up points via penalties. Their defence is also outstanding, as is that of the Boks. At the time of writing the total match points market had not been released but we would immediately be looking at the unders when it is.
Makazole Mapimpi anytime try-scorer at $2
The South African powerhouse has scored five tries in five matches, as has Welsh rival Josh Adams. If either of those players can score one or more tries in this match there is every chance they will be crowned leading try-scorer of the tournament, especially give there is a bronze medal play-off for third place which will provide the losing team here another game to play. We feel Mapimpi has been the outstanding finisher in this tournament and with Kolbe sidelined he will need to step up again.
Wales v South Africa prediction
A fascinating clash given the history between the teams. We expect a dour affair with both teams boasting outstanding defences. South Africa are a much improved team in recent years, and have a much better record in these big games. We expect them to get over the line but with less than a coverted try between the teams at the final whistle.
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