Port Adelaide v Richmond betting tips, prediction & odds; AFL preliminary final preview
Updated Friday 16/6, 2:30pm: Welcome to our Port Adelaide v Richmond betting tips, prediction and odds update for their AFL preliminary final being played on Friday night at the Adelaide Oval.
The Power are fresh after enjoying a week off following their demolition of Geelong in week one of the finals, while Richmond lost to Brisbane, before beating St Kilda easily to advance to the preliminary final.
Port Adelaide opened at $1.85 for the clash, while Richmond was paying $1.95. But hours from the bounce on Friday, more money has been for the Power, who have been backed into $1.74. The Tigers have blown out to $2.15 in to win this match. The $1.90 line has also increased from 1.5 points to 3.5 points, while the over/under mark was adjusted from 114.5 to 115.5 points on match day.
The Power took all before them and led the competition all year, as they handled the covid-impacted season exceptionally well. They dropped just three games in the 17-round season, but will be nervous facing a Tigers team that looked a lot more potent with full-forward Tom Lynch back from his hamstring injury.
Richmond started the season slowly, but were premiership favourites by round 15, although it has not been without a few hurdles, most notably injuries to Lynch, Trent Cotchin, Jack Riewoldt and the unavailability of Shane Edwards and Bachar Houli. The distraction of the Mabior Chol crotch-grabbing incident and several other indiscretions should also not be underestimated.
The Tigers’ frantic style and tall forwards versus Port Adelaide’s battle-hardened midfield and exceptional young talent promises to be a cracking contest, and selection could have a huge impact on the result
Both teams have opted not to mess with a winning formula, Port Adelaide resisting the temptation to include another tall to combat red-hot Lynch, who makes his team a much better outfit, as they begin to glimpse life without a dominant Jack Riewoldt. Richmond has again left out Josh Caddy, with the former Cat and Sun falling out of favour for much of this season.
The Power are also a settled line-up have included Todd Marshall (shoulder) and Xavier Duursma (concussion) despite being on restricted training programs, following incidents against Geelong.
Below are our free Port Adelaide v Richmond betting tips for their AFL preliminary final at the Adelaide Oval on Friday night.
Power v Tigers odds
|Start:||7.50pm AEST, October 16|
|Venue:||Adelaide Oval, Adelaide|
|Head-to-head odds:||Port Adelaide ($1.74) v Richmond ($2.10)|
|Line betting:||Port Adelaide -1.5 ($1.90) v Richmond +1.5 ($1.90)|
|Premiership odds:||Port Adelaide $3.75; Richmond $3.75|
Port Adelaide v Richmond tips
Our AFL betting expert has scoured the odds and found several value Power vs Tigers tips for Friday’s game.
Dustin Martin to kick 2+ goals
Star Tiger Dustin Martin was brilliant against St Kilda and in general is brilliant in finals. Dusty will need to spend some time forward if the Tigers are to win here and the $2.60 on him kicking 2+ goals looks nice value. Unibet is also running a doubles market, where you can bet on Martin to kick a goal, or multiple goals and his possession count.
Robbie Gray to kick 2+ goals
Power veteran Robbie Gray was close to best on ground against the Tigers early in the season, with three majors and 22 touches. The skilful Gray is built for finals and is paying $3.35 to kick 2+ goals with Unibet.
Tom Rockliff to get 25 touches
Ball magnet Tom Rockliff is part of a powerful Port Adelaide midfield, that could be the difference between these two teams. Rockliff’s low hurt factor sees him as the player that is often allowed to run loose. The likes of Brownlow fancy Travis Boak, Ollie Wines and hard-nosed Sam Powell-Pepper make this an area the Tigers must curb, but not enough to stop us cashing in on the $2.50 on offer for Rockliff to gather 25+.
Port Adelaide v Richmond prediction 16/10/2020
Port Adelaide could not have been any more impressive in their dismissal of Geelong in the opening week of the finals, but you get the feeling they wish they weren’t playing Richmond this week. The match will pit the frantic Tigers against the mature Power, who have plenty of big bodies, built for finals football. The Power will try to make this a stoppage game, while the Tigers will want to burn them on the outside. Our head is telling us that the Power have been the better team this season, but there is a nagging suspicion the Tigers will win in a final. This indecisiveness in our own minds is telling us to steer clear of punting on a winner in a game that has been priced at close to even money in the betting. Our final Port Adelaide v Richmond prediction? Power by 1 point.
Power vs Tigers lowdown
Free-to-air: Channel 7; Subscription TV: Foxtel; streaming/IPTV: Kayo; mobile: AFL Live Pass.
All of the top online betting sites will offer markets on the AFL.
The game starts at 7:50pm AEDT, October 16, 2020.
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