Brisbane v Geelong betting tips, prediction & odds; AFL preliminary final preview
Welcome to our Brisbane v Geelong betting tips, prediction & odds update for their AFL preliminary final at the Gabba on Saturday night.
The Lions will enter the clash off a groundbreaking victory over Richmond which earned them a week off, and the opportunity to play on their home ground in their first preliminary final since beating Geelong in 2004.
The Cats have reached the preliminary final the hard way, losing in week 1, before thrashing a hapless Collingwood by 68 points at the Gabba last Saturday night.
The Lions are the bookies’ favourite to win this clash at $1.78, while the Cats are outsiders in the betting at $2.15. In line betting, the Lions -2.5 points are paying $1.87 and Geelong +2.5 are at $1.93. The over/under mark has been set at 120.5 points.
Remarkably neither of these teams has lost at the Gabba in 2020, with the Lions going 10 from 10 and the Cats winning all four of their games at the venue.
Earlier in the season, Tom Hawkins kicked three goals against the Lions as they dismissed them by 27 points at the SCG, after a barnstorming third quarter that broke the back of the Lions, who were leading by 10 points at half-time. Giving this victory even more merit were injuries to Mitch Duncan and Quinton Narkle, who took no part in the game after quarter-time.
The midfield was where the game was decided last time and the Lions will be desperate for no repeat of the battering the Cats’ experienced mids gave them at the SCG. The Cats will again attempt to dominate possession, while the Lions will try to get the ball moving quickly and break apart their opponent’s zone. These are the two most efficient teams in the comp for scoring and we expect more of the same here.
The battle between Geelong spearhead Tom Hawkins and Lions defender Harris Andrews looms as a key, with the Coleman Medallist playing a huge role up front for the Cats. The Cats’ reliance on the 32-year-old is highlighted by their public chase for GWS spearhead Jeremy Cameron.
The Lions will have youngster Noah Answerth available for selection after missing their last two games with a groin complaint, but with just three players on the injury list, they would be in a buoyant mood and may not tinker with a winning line-up.
The Cats are confident Rhys Stanley will play against the Lions after jarring his knee against Collingwood, but the important big man did return to the field against the Magpies and we are not forecasting them making any changes.
Read on for our Brisbane v Geelong tips ahead of their clash at the Gabba on Saturday night.
Lions v Cats odds
|Start:||7.40pm AEDT, October 17|
|Head-to-head odds:||Brisbane ($1.75) v Geelong ($2.15)|
|Line betting:||Brisbane -3.5 ($1.90) v Geelong +3.5 ($1.90)|
|Premiership odds:||Brisbane $4; Geelong $4.20|
Brisbane v Geelong tips
Our AFL betting expert has scoured the odds and found several value Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats tips for their preliminary final.
Tom Hawkins to kick 3+ goals
The question of whether Tom Hawkins kicks three goals could very well decide this clash, which we expect to be a hard-fought contest. Lions ace defender Harris Andrews is likely to play on the man mountain, but is also an option for Patrick Dangerfield, who is almost certain to spend long stints up front, if his midfield can win enough ball without his talents. Keep an eye on the weather but Hawkins always gives punters a good sight and is offering some nice value at $2.50 to kick most goals.
Lachie Neale most possessions group 1 at PlayUp
The unbackable Brownlow Medal favourite again looms as a key to the Lions midfield, which faces a stern test against the depth of the Cats. Neale is the favourite to top the possessions in group 1 at PlayUp, a feat we think he is likely to achieve given the even spread throughout both teams this season. He is paying $4 to top the touches.
Over/under betting tip
The over/under betting mark has been set at 120.5, which would not have been eclipsed last time these two clubs met. It’s expected to be hot and dry in Brisbane on Saturday, which we think could lead to a higher scoring contest. Couple this with the earlier game start enacted in recent weeks and we think taking the overs is the smart money here. It’s paying $1.88 with Unibet Australia.
Either team by under 15 points (Tribet)
Many AFL bookies run a market which allows you to wager on either team by under 15 points, which looks a solid bet to us, given the stakes at play here. We just can’t see anything other than a close clash, between two of the best teams in the competition. Either team to win by under 15 points is paying $2.20 which looks to be a sensible leg for your multiples.
Brisbane v Geelong prediction 17/10/2020
The Lions have had a charmed run in 2020 after Covid-19 sent the AFL scurrying into a hub in Queensland for much of the season. This of course, meant the Lions played many of their games at the Gabba, which is the venue for this clash. We have seen teams not adapt well to the conditions here, but the earlier starting time to pander to the southern states who have started daylight savings, means the dewy conditions are having less impact. The Cats are hardly strangers to the Gabba, having thoroughly beaten the Pies there last weekend. so we’re taking the home ground out of the equation. The Cats appear to have a slightly stronger midfield than their opponent, and if they get on top and allow Dangerfield to spend more time forward, we just can’t see them losing. The Lions will need the mercurial Charlie Cameron to fire if they are to be any hope. Our final Brisbane v Geelong prediction? Cats by 14 points.
Lions vs Cats lowdown
Free-to-air: Channel 7; Subscription TV: Foxtel; streaming/IPTV: Kayo; mobile: AFL Live Pass.
All of the top online betting sites will offer markets on the AFL.
The game starts at 6:40pm local time on October 17, 2020.
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