Richmond v St Kilda betting tips, prediction & odds; AFL Semi-final preview
Welcome to our Richmond v St Kilda betting tips, prediction and odds update ahead of their semi-final at Metricon Stadium on Friday night.
The Tigers are the favourites in the betting and are priced at $1.28, with St Kilda outsiders at $3.75. The $1.90 line has blown out to 20.5 points at leading bookmaker Unibet.
St Kilda have been hit hard by injuries and suspension after their upset win over the Western Bulldogs in an elimination final. They have lost rebounding defender Ben Long (suspension) and veteran ruckman Paddy Ryder (hamstring), who was close to best on ground against the Bulldogs.
Richmond have included star spearhead Tom Lynch after his hamstring injury, but will be worried after they succumbed to Brisbane in the qualifying final. The Tigers were outpointed though the midfield and made unusually sloppy mistakes.
The Saints defeated the Tigers by 26 points earlier in the season, but the teams’ fortunes have changed significantly since then. In that game, Jack Billings was dominant through the midfield and Tim Membrey and Dan Butler both booted three goals.
The Tigers were below their best in this contest and deserve to be given a second shot by punters, with AFL bookies pricing them accordingly. While we don’t see much value in the head to head Richmond v St Kilda betting, there are plenty of opportunities in the exotics, including goal-scorer and possessions betting.
The Queensland weather has proven tough for night football, and games can deteriorate into low-scoring slogs, which is important to remember when betting. It’s also imperative to remember that daylight savings has kicked in down north, which means the game time has actually been adjusted to 6.50pm Local time, which we think could help with the conditions and potentially lead to better football in south-east Queensland.
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The Saints have recalled Jonathon Marsh, Josh Battle and Shane Savage, for Long, Ryder and Jake Carlisle, who has left the AFL hub to be at the birth of his child.
Richmond have included Lynch and tough defender Nathan Broad, with Jake Aarts and Mabior Chol omitted.
Read on for our free Richmond v St Kilda tips ahead of their clash at Metricon Stadium on Friday.
Tigers v Saints odds
| Start: | 7.50pm AEST, October 9 |
| Venue: | Metricon Stadium, Gold Coast |
| Head-to-head odds: | Richmond ($1.28) v St Kilda ($3.75) |
| Line betting: | Richmond -20.5 ($1.90) v St Kilda 20.5 ($1.90) |
| Premiership odds: | Richmond $4.50; St Kilda $26 |
Richmond v St Kilda
Our AFL betting expert has scoured the odds and found several value Tigers v Saints tips for Friday’s game.
Tom Lynch to kick most goals group 1 Unibet
Tigers full-forward Tom Lynch has been the difference in so many Richmond wins since quitting the Gold Coast. Lynch will be coming in fresh from injury, but has done so with great impact in the past. Bank on the big Tiger showing why he gets paid the big bucks. He is paying $5.90 to top the goal-scorers in group 1 betting at Unibet.
Jack Steele to get most possessions
St Kilda star Jack Steele has to win their best and fairest by a long way, and will again be a key player in this game. His ability in close and on the spread make him hard to tag and we think he is a strong chance topping the possessions count in group 1 betting at Unibet Australia. On the Richmond side of the equation, we’re willing to lay off on Dion Prestia, who is consistently the Tigers’ best ball-winner, but is only second game back from injury. Dustin Martin is the other big threat in possessions betting.
Richmond to win and over 121.5 points
We can’t see the Richmond vs St Kilda game being high-scoring but if the 121.5 over/under mark is still available we would seriously consider snapping it up. Unibet has a doubles market where you can take Richmond to win and the total match score to be over 121.5. This is paying $2.38, which is a nice leg for your multiples this weekend.
Richmond v St Kilda prediction 9/10/2020
Richmond have the upper hand here, with a healthier list and greater finals experience. We are willing to write their loss off to Brisbane as an aberration and it would not surprise to see the Tigers still reach the grand final. St Kilda’s best hope of victory is to turn it into a dour arm wrestle and hope like hell the cards fall their way. Our final Richmond v St Kilda prediction: Tigers by 11 points.
Tigers vs Saints lowdown
Free-to-air: Channel 7; Subscription TV: Foxtel; streaming/IPTV: Kayo; mobile: AFL Live Pass.
All of the top online betting sites will offer markets on the AFL.
The game starts at 7:50pm AEST on October 9, 2020.
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