South Africa v Italy betting tips, odds, predictions – RWC 2019 Match 23

Welcome to our free predictions and odds update for match 23 of the Rugby World Cup between South Africa and Italy at Shizuoka Stadium Ecopa on Friday, October 4.

This promises to be a brutal battle of the forwards, with both teams stacking their eight-man bench with six replacement forwards.

The Springboks must win this match to have any chance of advancing to the next round, as Italy are flying at the top of the Pool B table after convincing wins against lower-tier nations Namibia and Canada.

We think normal order will be restored here, with South Africa winning comfortably. Of their 14 previous matches against Italy, the Boks have won all but one. That sole 20-18 loss was in Italy in 2016, but the South Africans are a lot more solid now than they were in those days.

Leading ZA betting sites have got the odds about right for this South Africa v Italy clash, having installed the South Africans around the $1.03 price to win this match, while Italy is an outsider in betting at $34.

Check out our team previews to get the latest form, our tips for leading try-scorer from each team and where we think they will finish in the tournament.

South Africa
Italy

Here are our South Africa v Italy predictions and odds for their clash at the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan.

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Rugby World Cup Match 23: Pool B – South Africa v Italy

Kick-off: 6.45pm local time (GMT +9)
Venue: Shizuoka Stadium Ecopa

Italy v South Africa odds

Head to head odds: South Africa $1, Italy $34
Handicap line odds: South Africa (-25.5 points) $1.91, Italy (+25.5 points) $1.91

Previous World Cup 2019 matches:

South Africa:

New Zealand 23 (Scott Barrett, George Bridge tries; Richie Mo’unga 2 cons, Mo’unga 2, Beauden Barrett pens) d South Africa 13 (Pieter-Steph du Toit try; Handre Pollard con, pen, drop goal). Referee: Jerome Garces.
South Africa 57 (Mbongeni Mbonambi 2, Makazole Mapimpi 2, Francois Louw, Lukhanyo Am, Warrick Gelant, Siya Kolisi, Schalk Brits; Elton Jantjies 6 cons) d Namibia 3 (Cliven Loubser pen). Referee: Mathieu Raynal.

Italy:

Italy 47 (Penalty try; Tommaso Allan, Carlo Canna, Matteo Minozzi, Edoardo Padovani, Jake Polledri, Tito Tebaldi tries; Allan 3, Canna 2 cons) d Namibia 22 (JC Greyling, Chad Plato, Damian Stevens tries; Cliven Loubser 2 cons, pen). Referee: Nic Berry.
Italy 48 (Penalty try; Mattia Bellini, Dean Budd, Matteo Minozzi, Sebastian Negri, Abraham Steyn, Federico Zani tries; Tommaso Allan 3, Carlo Canna cons, Allan pen) d Canada 7 (Andrew Coe try; Peter Nelson con). Referee: Nigel Owens.

Springboks v Azzurri tips RWC2019

Italy +25.5 points at $1.91

While we believe the Springboks will win well, we can see this descending into a real grind, with the South Africans getting ahead and then largely just killing the game without taking too many risks. Our final prediction for Pool B match between South Africa and Italy is a score of 27-9, in the favourites favour.

Match total under 54.5 points at $1.91

Further to the idea that Italy v South Africa will be a dour, forwards-based battle, this bet is a no-brainer for us this time. As the stakes of each game rise, we think things will tighten up.

South Africa v Italy prediction

Italy have always struggled to score heavily against South Africa, whose forwards generally give them an edge no matter who they play. We predict this trend to continue but we also expect the Azzurri to throw everything they have at them. This is their chance to advance to the second round so it’s all on the line. It should be a cracker. Good punting!

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