Melbourne v Richmond betting tips and prediction, AFL Rd 7, 2025

Welcome to our Melbourne v Richmond betting tips for their round 7 AFL clash from the MCG on Thursday night. 

The Demons have been installed a $1.30 favourite to defeat the Tigers ($3.54), with the line set at 23.5 points and one we will be avoiding because of the unpredictable nature of these two teams. 

The Demons recorded their first win of the season against Fremantle and they will be heartened by their best performance since a narrow round 1 loss against GWS and their ability kick over 100 points would also please coach Simon Goodwin. 

Richmond have been rocked during the week after star defender Noah Balta narrowly avoided jail for assault, but was handed an 18-month community corrections order and enforced a 10pm to 6am curfew until July 22, 2025, on him, which is set to rule him out of at least four of their games. 

The Tigers however will be buoyed by having won two games early in the year, after many tipped them to struggle following an exodus of players, including Shai Bolton, Liam Baker, Daniel Rioli and Jack Graham. 

Melbourne has  started the season awfully, but a victory here would give them some hope for the remainder of 2025. They are hopeful of regaining tough defender Steven May after he was a late withdrawal against the Dockers, and he could replace Daniel Turner who suffered a concussion. Forwards Bayley Fritsch and Jacob Van Rooyen performed poorly at VFL and look unlikely to earn a recall after being dropped. 

Richmond will lose Balta as the impact of the curfew kicks in, which again will leave them frail in the back half, with sub Luke Trainor looming as his replacement, while Rhyan Mansell could also earn a recall after finishing his three match suspension. 

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Melbourne v Richmond odds

• Head-to-head odds: Melbourne ($1.30) v Richmond ($3.54)
• Line betting: Melbourne -23.5 ($1.90) v Richmond +23.5 ($1.90)
• Over/Under: Over 178.5 ($1.88)/ Under 178.5 ($1.88)

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Melbourne v Richmond tips

Continue reading for our Melbourne v Richmond betting tips and winner prediction. 

Kysaiah Pickett to kick 3+ goals

Melbourne’s  Kysaiah Pickett clearly played his best game of the season against Fremantle last start. Was he just teasing them as he flirts with a move home to Western Australia? We’re not sure but his five goals and 24 possessions had him a clear best on ground. We think, against an inexperienced Richmond team, he can back it up and kick another three. Pickett is paying $2.60 to kick 3+ goals with AFL bookmakers. 

Clayton Oliver to get 30+ disposals

Melbourne’s gun midfielder Clayton Oliver has returned to somewhere near his best this season and we think he will enjoy playing against the Tigers’ inexperienced midfield. Oliver is paying $1.46 to gather 30 or more possessions and we think this is as close to a lock as you can get, for a same-game multi leg. 

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Demons v Tigers winner prediction 24/5

We were as surprised as anyone by the Tigers’ upset victory over the Gold Coast, but they are undoubtedly inexperienced and the Demons look to have more match winners; despite their own patchy form. The Demons were in many peoples’ finals calculations in the pre-season and a loss to to the Tigers would almost put an early-season nail in them. We thought their rejigged forward line, without premiership hero Fritsch looked a lot more menacing and we’ll back them to get the job done again. Our final Melbourne v Richmond prediction? Demons by 36 points.