Richmond v Geelong betting tips, prediction and odds; AFL Grand Final preview

AFL grand final tips: Richmond v Geelong betting preview and prediction

Updated Saturday 24/10 1pm AEST: Welcome to our Richmond v Geelong betting tips, prediction and odds update ahead of the AFL grand final at the Gabba on Saturday night.

Reigning champions Richmond will enter the clash as favourites, but they have drifted from $1.76 to $1.86 with Unibet, with Geelong firming from $2.12 to $2.05 early on match day. The $1.90 line has been trimmed from 3.5 to 2.5 points.

Richmond defeated Port Adelaide by six points on Friday night to enter their third grand final in four years, with a third premiership set to equal modern-day greats Brisbane (2001, 2002, 2003) and Geelong (2007, 2009, 2011) and move closer to Hawthorn’s mark of four flags.

NRL: Grand Final preview

Geelong dismantled premiership favourites Brisbane by 40 points at the Gabba last Saturday night, to reach their fifth grand final since 2007, with the Cats’ latest flag coming in Chris Scott’s first season in charge in 2011. Perennial finalists, Geelong look headed for another golden era, after GWS free agent Jeremy Cameron announced he wanted to join them next season.

Earlier in this convoluted AFL season, the Tigers defeated Geelong by 26 points, but the damage could have been far greater with the scoring shots finishing at 22 to 11.

Richmond forward Jack Riewoldt booted four goals on this day from 10 possessions and it was a typically efficient team performance, with no player reaching 20 possessions, that proved to be too much for the Cats.


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Star Cats spearhead Tom Hawkins was well held, but it was a tough day for him, with his team soundly beaten all over the park.

Both teams will have significant personnel changes for the grand final rematch, with the Cats now having Joel Selwood, Gary Ablett and Gary Rohan fit and ready to confront the Tigers.

Richmond have regained veteran Shane Edwards and ball winner Dion Prestia since their troubles earlier in the season and ruckman Ivan Soldo is the only first-choice player they are missing, keeping their remarkable injury run intact.

Neither Richmond or Geelong have made any changes to their line-ups after their successful preliminary finals, with both clubs have up until an hour before the game to swing late changes, but it appears unlikely. 

Richmond’s emergencies include veteran Josh Caddy, who has struggled to break into the team in 2020, Oleg Markov, Mabior Chol and Jake Aarts. 

The four players on standby at Geelong are Tom Atkins, Zach Guthrie, Esava Ratugolea and Brad Close. 

It is raining on Saturday morning in Brisbane, with it expected to continue all afternoon, which is likely to impact this game significantly. Most weather predictions are saying there is around a 60% chance of rain during the contest.

Read on for our free Richmond v Geelong tips for their AFL grand final being played at the Gabba on Saturday night.


Tigers v Cats AFL grand final odds

Start:7.30pm AEDT, October 24
Venue:Gabba, Brisbane
Umpires:Matt Stevic (9), Simon Meredith (21), Craig Fleer (26)
Head-to-head odds:Richmond ($1.84) v Geelong ($2.05)
Line betting: Richmond -3.5 ($1.90) v Geelong +3.5 ($1.90)
Premiership odds: Richmond $1.84; Geelong $2.05

Richmond v Geelong tips

Our AFL betting expert has scoured the odds and found several value Tigers v Cats tips for Saturday’s grand final.

Gary Ablett to kick 2+ goals

There have been few better players than former Gold Coast captain Gary Ablett, who will play his final game in the grand final. While Ablett has been a shadow of the player that made him unstoppable for many years in his return to the Cats, he showed his football smarts and skills have not faded in a strong display against Brisbane in the preliminary final. Ablett is paying $5.50 to finish with a fairytale and kick 2+ goals. 

Either team by under 15 points (tribet)

Unibet is running a Tribet market that allows you to wager on any team to win by less than 15 points. We expect this game to be low-scoring and hard-fought with rain predicted to fall in Brisbane on Saturday night. Either team to win by 15 points or less is paying $2.10 which looks to be a nice leg to anchor your same-game multis.

Tom Lynch to kick first goal

Star Tiger Tom Lynch might be among the most hated players in the AFL, but Richmond fans know that they probably would not have a second flag in the bank without him. Lynch is always in the action upfront with the Tigers’ escape kick usually long to him or Jack Riewoldt. While first goal-scorer betting is always a raffle, Lynch at $9.50 will give you a good run. At the other end Tom Hawkins is paying $8.50 to kick the first goal.

Norm Smith Medal tip

Richmond’s reliance on Dustin Martin in big games is highlighted by him winning two Norm Smith Medals (2017 and 2019) and it would be hard to bet against him, if the Tigers are to win this game. Geelong resisted the temptation to hard tag him earlier in the season, but it would not surprise to see hard-nosed Joel Selwood stand him at stoppages and Jake Kolodjashnij stand him up forward. We’ve always liked the idea of Mark Blicacs being given a crack on Dusty as well, which is a left-field option if the Tigers star gets on top early. Other players in the running to win the Norm Smith include Patrick Dangerfield ($6), Dion Prestia and Bachar Houli ($13). You could do worse than have a flutter on Mitch Duncan at odds, with the Cats runner paying $15 to win the Norm Smith. 

Over/under betting tip

The Richmond v Geelong betting market for the over/unders total match points mark has been trimmed from 118.5 to 114.5 on match day with plenty of rain about. We are predicting that the game total will still be unders, with this game set to be played in slippery conditions and in a high-pressure situation. We have seen Gabba games deteriorate at night when the heat is on and we expect more of the same here.


Richmond v Geelong prediction 24/10/2020

Richmond have staked their claim as the best team in the past few seasons, but if they are to overtake the Cats’ legacy in the AFL era, they need to win this game. The Tigers’ game style, while proving to be horrible to watch, is built for finals and limits the errors they can make through mistakes. Geelong have surprised many this season, after losing gun midfielder Tim Kelly, but their veterans Patrick Dangerfield and Tom Hawkins cobbled together close to career-best seasons, while their back line is highly experienced and complements their star-studded midfield beautifully. For once the grand final is pitting the two best teams against each other and we can’t wait for this one. Our final winner prediction is largely based on one team being significantly better in the wet. Our final Richmond v Geelong prediction? Tigers by four points.


Tigers vs Cats lowdown

How can I watch the Richmond v Geelong AFL grand final?

Free-to-air: Channel 7; Subscription TV: Foxtel; streaming/IPTV: Kayo; mobile: AFL Live Pass.

How can I bet on the Richmond Tigers v Geelong Cats AFL grand final?

All of the top online betting sites will offer markets on the AFL.

What time does the Richmond vs Geelong grand final start?

The game starts at 7:30pm (AEDT) on October 24, 2020.

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