Collingwood v Essendon tips & prediction | AFL Rd 7 Preview

 Collingwood has suffered a major blow on the eve of ANZAC Day, with skipper Darcy Moore ruled out with an inner ear injury for their traditional clash against Essendon at the MCG on Friday.

Despite the Magpies’ defensive pillar missing the clash they have been installed a $1.25 favourite to defeat the Bombers ($4), with the line set at a generous 25.5 points.

Both teams are in strong form with the Magpies having rattled off five successive wins since their round 1 loss to Greater Western Sydney, including an impressive win on the road last week against reigning champion Brisbane.

The Bombers have won their last three matches, but there are question marks over the opposition, with these coming over West Coast, Melbourne and an out-of-form Port Adelaide. They also suffered a major blow against West Coast with no.1 ruckman Sam Draper rupturing his achilles, with veteran big man Todd Goldstein now in line for a call-up.

They are likely to recall Kyle Langford from injury and are confident they will have Xavier Duursma available after a heavy hit against the Eagles. They are also unlikely to have Jye Caldwell, Matt Guelfi or Nik Cox available; while Darcy Parrish remains absent.

The Magpies will regain star recruit Dan Houston after his latest suspension, but they will have to go back to the drawing board to cover the loss of Moore. After already losing key defender Reef McInness to injury they will now look to a VFL backup such as Charlie Dean to fill a key post alongside Billy Frampton. They are also likely to recall St Kilda recruit Tim Membrey after his rest.

The Magpies will be led by young superstar and Brownlow Medal favourite Nick Daicos for the first time in Moore’s absence,

Collingwood v Essendon tips

Here are our free Collingwood v Essendon ANZAC Day tips:

ANZAC Day Medal tips

Would anyone be that shocked if Nick Daicos had 42 touches and won the ANZAC Day Medal? We certainly would not be, but in a team game there are a number of options that could take out the gong for best on ground. And at $3 with betting sites, Daicos is simply too short to offer any value. On the Pies’ side of the equation, we like Darcy Cameron, who won’t have to worry too much defensively and could sneak forward and is offering a juicy price at $21. For the Bombers, it’s hard to look past their ace-in-the-pack Zach Merrett, but if you want a roughie, consider Peter Wright, who could cash in on Moore’s absence and the Pies’ lack of height down back. Just quietly, Bobby Hill’s odds of $34 are tempting us.

Zac Merrett to have 30+ possessions

Merrett has a made a habit of firing against the Magpies, and they are a team that doesn’t tag heavily, instead preferring to allow the likes of Daicos to take on their man directly. While we expect the Bombers to tag Daicos, we think the Magpies are likely to take their customary team approach, which will mean the Dons skipper could rack up a mountain of ball, while having someone like Steele Sidebottom make sure he doesn’t impact the game too much.

Peter Wright to kick 3+ goals

Wright fired last week against the Eagles and he will be licking his lips at the absence of Moore, with Frampton now his likely opponent. If the Bombers are to win, Wright is going to need to kick a bag and it’s offering some value at $2.60. Tempering these goal kicking ambitions is the Draper injury, which means Wright will almost certainly ruck at some point.

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Collingwood v Essendon prediction

Collingwood looks to have Essendon’s measure in this contest, with their midfield and ball users looking a class above Brad Scott’s team. The Magpies forward line has more prongs to it and we think they will run out comfortable winners in this contest. But we’ve seen it consistently this year, a down week is possible and the Magpies’ odds ($1.25 at AFL betting sites) are too short for our tastes, which means we will stick to the exotics in this one. Our final Collingwood v Essendon prediction? Magpies by 22 points.