Brisbane v Richmond betting tips, prediction & odds; AFL Qualifying Final Preview
Welcome to our Brisbane v Richmond betting tips, prediction and odds update for their AFL Qualifying Final at the Gabba on Friday night.
The Tigers are many people’s pick for the AFL premiership and they have been priced at $1.72 to win this game. The Lions are paying $2.10 to cause an upset, but will be buoyed by the absence of Tiger spearhead Tom Lynch.
Other key Lions v Tigers betting markets include the line being set at 3.5 points in the visiting team’s favour, while the over/under points total betting mark has been set at 118.5.
Richmond, the reigning premiers, dismissed Brisbane by 41 points earlier in the season, but it was not all doom and gloom for Chris Fagan’s team that day. The Lions were horrible in front of goal kicking 4.17, while Richmond finished with 10.12 and fewer shots on goal than their opponent.
Remarkably the Lions have not beaten Richmond since round 7, 2009, making it one of the biggest hoodoos running in the AFL at 15 wins in succession for the Tigers.
The Lions have recalled star defender Harris Andrews, from a hamstring injury, and talented midfielder Jarrod Berry after a shoulder issue. Cam Ellis-Yolman and tall defender Jack Payne have been omitted.
Richmond have recalled gun midfielder Dion Prestia for his first game in six weeks and Shai Bolton, who was rested from their final-round clash with a corked leg. Veteran Josh Caddy and Jack Ross have been dropped.
Read on for our free Brisbane v Richmond tips ahead of their clash at the Gabba on Friday.
Lions v Tigers odds
|Start:||7.50pm AEST, October 2|
|Venue:||the Gabba, Brisbane|
|Head-to-head odds:||Brisbane ($2.11) v Richmond ($1.72)|
|Line betting:||Brisbane +3.5 ($1.90) v Richmond -3.5 ($1.90)|
|Premiership odds:||Brisbane $3.25; Richmond $5.25|
Brisbane v Richmond tips
Our AFL betting expert has scoured the odds and found several value Lions v Tigers tips for Friday’s game.
Dayne Zorko to get 20+ touches
Brisbane captain Dayne Zorko will want to lead from the front in such an important final against Richmond. The Tigers, while defensively minded as a group, don’t tend to tag specific players and Zorko is a player the Lions want with the ball in their hands. Forget Zorko’s season averages here, expect him to gather 20 touches at $2.10.
Over/under betting tip
We have seen what can happen to the skill level in these night games at the Gabba and there has been some truly putrid scores kicked. We suspect with the pressure cooker of finals in action, this could be low-scoring and close. We’re confident the total match points won’t exceed 118.5.
Jason Castagna to kick 2+ goals
Richmond small forward Jason Castagna has not been at his best in 2020, but he has a great record in finals, and is the type of player who can be the difference in tight games. With Lynch out of the Tigers’ line-up we can see the Tigers rotating their smalls feverishly deep forward in this contest, which could be Castagna’s ticket to a couple of goals. This bet is paying $3.75 with Unibet Australia.
Brisbane Lions v Richmond Tigers prediction 2/10/2020
Richmond’s 2017 and 2019 premierships, results in big games, manic game style and recent dominance over Brisbane, are all reasons the Tigers should be favoured in this clash. In fact it would be downright irresponsible to tip against them. But the absence of Gold Coast recruit Tom Lynch, who has been the difference in so many games in the past two years, has evened this clash right out. His hamstring strain is likely to mean Lions #1 defender Harris Andrews has an easier day on Jack Riewoldt — this might just be the difference — but still we just can’t tip against Richmond. Our final Brisbane v Richmond prediction? Tigers by nine points.
Lions vs Tigers lowdown
Free-to-air: Channel 7; Subscription TV: Foxtel; streaming/IPTV: Kayo; mobile: AFL Live Pass.
All of the top online betting sites will offer markets on the AFL.
The game starts at 7:50pm local time on October 2, 2020.
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